Aviva Investors projects a strong growth outlook with upside risks

(London) Aviva Investors, the global asset management business of Aviva PLC, sees a potent combination of economic drivers underpinning a strong global recovery in 2021, resulting in an above-consensus outlook for growth. Although uncertainties remain, the COVID pandemic is passing, and successful roll-outs of vaccination programmes are allowing economies to reopen. Pent-up demand, large savings buffers and ongoing fiscal and monetary policy support will all help boost the recovery.

washington

Despite worries about virus mutations and renewed lockdowns in a number of regions, businesses and households have shown themselves to be impressively resilient and resourceful. Successive waves of the virus have had less impact on real economic activity as both have adapted to sometimes rapidly changing circumstances.

Monetary policy is expected to remain supportive throughout 2021 and 2022, with recent changes in approach to meeting their inflation objective allowing central banks to keep policy looser for longer. The COVID reset has helped fuel major changes in the fiscal environment, with many countries shifting to bolder and larger interventionist demand management policies. The US is in the vanguard of such changes.

Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors, said:

“Given our strong growth expectations, as well as the balance of risks, we prefer to be overweight global equities, especially in US and UK markets. We are modestly underweight emerging market equities because of the anticipated headwinds from higher US bond yields, weaker local currencies and tighter domestic monetary policy.

“Higher sovereign bond yields largely reflect the brighter economic outlook as well as increases in public borrowing. Central banks maintaining rates near the effective lower bound will keep the short end of yield curves anchored, but there is scope for longer-term yields to rise further. As a result, we prefer to be modestly underweight duration.

“The upside from tighter credit spreads appears to be more limited, given the narrowing that has already taken place, so we prefer to be slightly underweight. We are mostly neutral on currencies, with the previous mildly negative view on the US dollar now more nuanced, given the more rapid growth trajectory expected there compared to other regions.”

Download the full report here

For more information contact:

A picture of Victoria Howley

Victoria Howley

Media Relations Manager

A picture of Katie Ormrod

Katie Ormrod

Aviva Investors Media Relations

Important information

The information and opinions contained in this document are for use by the financial press and media only. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information or opinions contained in this document nor should they be seen as advice. 

The press release is provided on the basis that Aviva Investors Global Services Limited is not causing the communication of a financial promotion under exemption of the Financial Promotion Order, as Aviva Investors Global Services Limited has no control over the way in which an article based on this press release is prepared and published by the financial press and media. 

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (“Aviva Investors”) as at 14 April 2021. Unless stated otherwise any views, opinions expressed are those of Aviva Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature.  The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested. 

Issued by Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, registered in England No. 1151805.  Registered Office: St Helen's, 1 Undershaft, London, EC3P 3DQ   Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Aviva Investors

Aviva Investors is the global asset management business of Aviva plc. The business delivers investment management solutions, services and client-driven performance to clients worldwide. Aviva Investors operates in 14 countries in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and the United Kingdom with assets under management of £366 billion in assets as at 31 December 2020.

AVIVA PLC

For information on how Aviva is helping our people, customers and communities impacted by COVID-19 visit: www.aviva.com/covid-19-our-response/

Aviva is a leading international savings, retirement and insurance business. We exist to be with people when it really matters, throughout their lives – to help them make the most of life. We have been taking care of people for more than 320 years, in line with our purpose of being ‘with you today, for a better tomorrow’.

Our vision is to earn our customers’ trust as the best place to save for the future, navigate retirement and insure what matters most to them. In 2019, we paid £33.2 billion in claims and benefits on behalf of our 33.4 million customers.

We will focus on the UK, Ireland and Canada where we have leading market positions and significant potential. We will invest for growth in these markets. Our International businesses in Europe and Asia will be managed for long-term shareholder value. We will also transform our performance and improve our efficiency. Our transformation will be underpinned by managing our balance sheet prudently, reducing debt and increasing our financial resilience.

Total group assets under management at Aviva group are £522 billion and our Solvency II capital surplus is £12.0 billion (HY20). Our shares are listed on the London Stock Exchange and we are a member of the FTSE 100 index.

For more details on what we do, our business and how we help our customers, visit www.aviva.com/about-us

The Aviva newsroom at www.aviva.com/newsroom includes links to our image library, research reports and our news release archive. Sign up to get the latest news from Aviva by email.

You can follow us on Twitter

You can follow us on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/aviva-plc

For the latest corporate films from around our business, subscribe to our YouTube channel

We have a Globelynx system for broadcast interviews. Please contact the Press Officer noted above if you would like to make a booking.  

Latest company news