Aviva Investors more confident on outlook for 2021

17 December 2020

(London) – Aviva Investors, the global asset management arm of Aviva PLC (‘Aviva’), expects 2021 to be a year of economic recovery, with GDP reversing much of the unprecedented declines seen in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The development of a number of effective vaccines changes the end-game of the crisis fundamentally, although there will be some difficult months ahead.

Resurgent waves of virus infection have compelled governments to impose renewed restrictions on activity to contain its spread. These will hurt growth in the fourth quarter and in early 2021, but not to the same extent as seen earlier this year. Later in 2021, uncertainty should fade rapidly, with a potentially potent combination of falling case numbers, re-opening of economies, extensive deployment of vaccines and ongoing policy support.

Sentiment should be boosted further as the contours of the “post-COVID” world become more apparent, allowing companies and households to plan more confidently for the future. The pandemic has demonstrated the resilience and adaptability of people and may have some lasting impacts on behaviour and working practices in the future.

Michael Grady, head of investment strategy and chief economist at Aviva Investors, said:

“With a rapid and robust recovery expected in 2021, we prefer to start the year with a moderate overweight to global equities. Prices should be supported by the very strong outlook for corporate earnings growth in 2021.

“With central banks set to keep policy rates low and to maintain QE programmes, there is a limit to how much yields on shorter-maturity government bonds are likely to rise. But we do expect to see some steepening of yield curves as continuing fiscal support, alongside future growth and inflation expectations start to be priced into the market. We prefer to be slightly underweight duration, with a preference of US, UK, Italian and Australian bonds over core Europe.

“The scope for material excess returns from corporate bonds is expected to be more limited in 2021 after the significant tightening of spreads in 2020, though carry and roll down will still provide a stable income. We are modestly overweight the asset class, with a preference for US and Europe over Asia and UK. Within emerging markets, we prefer hard currency debt.

“In currencies, we expect a range of factors, including stronger global growth, reduced geopolitical tensions and wider US budget and trade deficits will lead to a further decline in the US dollar. We are more positive on the euro and yen.”

For more information contact:

A picture of Victoria Howley

Victoria Howley

Media Relations Manager

A picture of Steve Ainger

Steve Ainger

Media Relations Manager

Important information

The information and opinions contained in this document are for use by the financial press and media only. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information or opinions contained in this document nor should they be seen as advice. 

The press release is provided on the basis that Aviva Investors Global Services Limited is not causing the communication of a financial promotion under exemption of the Financial Promotion Order, as Aviva Investors Global Services Limited has no control over the way in which an article based on this press release is prepared and published by the financial press and media. 

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (AIGSL). Unless stated otherwise any views and opinions are those of Aviva Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by Aviva Investors and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested. Nothing in this material, including any references to specific securities, assets classes and financial markets is intended to or should be construed as advice or recommendations of any nature. Some data shown are hypothetical or projected and may not come to pass as stated due to changes in market conditions and are not guarantees of future outcomes. This material is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment. 

In Europe this document is issued by Aviva Investors Luxembourg S.A. Registered Office: 2 rue du Fort Bourbon, 1st Floor, 1249 Luxembourg. Supervised by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. An Aviva company. In the UK Issued by Aviva Investors Global Services Limited. Registered in England No. 1151805.  Registered Office: St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ.  Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119178.. In France, Aviva Investors France is a portfolio management company approved by the French Authority “Autorité des Marchés Financiers”, under n° GP 97-114, a limited liability company with Board of Directors and Supervisory Board, having a share capital of 18 608 050 euros, whose registered office is located at 14 rue Roquépine, 75008 Paris and registered in the Paris Company Register under n° 335 133 229. In Switzerland, this document is issued by Aviva Investors Schweiz GmbH.

In Singapore, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Asia Pte. Limited (AIAPL) for distribution to institutional investors only. Please note that AIAPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIAPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material.  AIAPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Singapore with registration number 200813519W, holds a valid Capital Markets Services Licence to carry out fund management activities issued under the Securities and Futures Act (Singapore Statute Cap. 289) and Asian Exempt Financial Adviser for the purposes of the Financial Advisers Act (Singapore Statute Cap.110). Registered Office: 1Raffles Quay, #27-13 South Tower, Singapore 048583. In Australia, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Pacific Pty Ltd (AIPPL) for distribution to wholesale investors only. Please note that AIPPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIPPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIPPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Australia with Australian Business No. 87 153 200 278 and Australian Company No. 153 200 278, holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 411458) issued by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Business Address: Level 30, Collins Place, 35 Collins Street, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia.

The name “Aviva Investors” as used in this material refers to the global organization of affiliated asset management businesses operating under the Aviva Investors name. Each Aviva investors’ affiliate is a subsidiary of Aviva plc, a publicly- traded multi-national financial services company headquartered in the United Kingdom. Aviva Investors Canada, Inc. (“AIC”) is located in Toronto and is registered with the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) as a Portfolio Manager, an Exempt Market Dealer, and a Commodity Trading Manager. Aviva Investors Americas LLC is a federally registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Aviva Investors Americas is also a commodity trading advisor (“CTA”) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”).  AIA’s Form ADV Part 2A, which provides background information about the firm and its business practices, is available upon written request to: Compliance Department, 225 West Wacker Drive, Suite 2250, Chicago, IL 60606

The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested.  

Aviva Investors

Aviva Investors is the global asset management business of Aviva plc. The business delivers investment management solutions, services and client-driven performance to clients worldwide. Aviva Investors operates in 14 countries in Asia Pacific, Europe, North America and the United Kingdom with assets under management of £355 billion in assets as at 30 June 2020.

AVIVA PLC

For information on how Aviva is helping our people, customers and communities impacted by COVID-19 visit: www.aviva.com/covid-19-our-response/

Aviva is a leading international savings, retirement and insurance business. We exist to be with people when it really matters, throughout their lives – to help them make the most of life. We have been taking care of people for more than 320 years, in line with our purpose of being ‘with you today, for a better tomorrow’.

Our vision is to earn our customers’ trust as the best place to save for the future, navigate retirement and insure what matters most to them. In 2019, we paid £33.2 billion in claims and benefits on behalf of our 33.4 million customers.

We will focus on the UK, Ireland and Canada where we have leading market positions and significant potential. We will invest for growth in these markets. Our International businesses in Europe and Asia will be managed for long-term shareholder value. We will also transform our performance and improve our efficiency. Our transformation will be underpinned by managing our balance sheet prudently, reducing debt and increasing our financial resilience.

Total group assets under management at Aviva group are £522 billion and our Solvency II capital surplus is £12.0 billion (HY20). Our shares are listed on the London Stock Exchange and we are a member of the FTSE 100 index.

For more details on what we do, our business and how we help our customers, visit www.aviva.com/about-us

The Aviva newsroom at www.aviva.com/newsroom includes links to our image library, research reports and our news release archive. Sign up to get the latest news from Aviva by email.

You can follow us on Twitter: 

You can follow us on LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/aviva-plc

For the latest corporate films from around our business, subscribe to our YouTube channel: 

We have a Globelynx system for broadcast interviews. Please contact the Press Officer noted above if you would like to make a booking.