Cinderella science?

Why portfolio construction holds the key to resilient investment outcomes

Read now

Recent AIQ Features

Have traditional safe havens lost their edge?

9 Jun 2020

COVID-19 has reminded investors of the importance of defensive positions within portfolios during times of stress. But are the ‘safe havens’ of the past still up to the task?

What makes a company resilient in a crisis?

9 Jun 2020

As the COVID-19 pandemic hits global economies, equity investors are redoubling their focus on corporate resilience. But what does resilience mean in the current context – and which companies have it?

Cinderella science? Why portfolio construction holds the key to resilient investment outcomes

9 Jun 2020

It is one thing to have a good investment idea, but quite another to extract the maximum potential from that idea and combine it with others to create an optimal portfolio. This is where portfolio construction comes in.

Where to go in an income drought?

9 Jun 2020

Income investors face multiple challenges – dividend cuts, historically low yields, rising corporate defaults, and an uncertain property market. Francois de Bruin goes in search of sustainable income sources.

The AIQ Podcast: The psychology of climate change

4 Mar 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the psychology of climate change and how to engage individuals in the quest for solutions.

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

28 Feb 2020

More than 40 years since a senior NASA scientist told US Congress of concerns about human activities disrupting the climate, experts are warning of an impending climate catastrophe and the financial sector is wrestling with the implications.

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

28 Feb 2020

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

28 Feb 2020

Psychological barriers can prevent people from acting to avert the climate threat, even when they recognise the problem. So how can we best engage individuals, companies and communities in the quest for solutions?

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

28 Feb 2020

Until recently, many investors made light of dire warnings of the risks posed by assets becoming “stranded” by climate change. However, as the threat becomes reality, fears are mounting that whole industries could be wiped out.

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

28 Feb 2020

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

28 Feb 2020

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

28 Feb 2020

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

An inconvenient transition

28 Feb 2020

Despite deafening calls for countries and companies to step up to fight the climate crisis, research suggests individuals – especially in the developed world – could also make a massive difference if they committed to getting by with less. But will they?

Climate data: Seeing through the fog

28 Feb 2020

Big data is heralded as the answer to almost every problem, so why not the climate crisis?

Nuclear: From pariah to saviour?

28 Feb 2020

As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. Despite lingering public anxiety around safety, there are growing calls for the world to look again at nuclear power as part of the solution to the climate crisis.

Biological annihilation: The facts behind the threats to biodiversity and ecosystems

28 Feb 2020

Over 100 billion people have walked the planet, making a gigantic stamp on the Earth. Around three quarters of the land and around two-thirds of the marine environment have been significantly altered by humans, impacting the carbon cycle and changing the prospects for many species.

The Little Book of Data

Visual vignettes to help us better understand the world and provoke thought, sign up to receive our hard copy coffee table book of data visualisations, The Little Book of Data.

Find out more

AIQ issue 011: The climate crisis

Responsible Investing

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

28 Feb 2020

Responsible Investing

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

28 Feb 2020

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Responsible Investing

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

28 Feb 2020

Responsible Investing

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

28 Feb 2020

Responsible Investing

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

28 Feb 2020

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Responsible Investing

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

28 Feb 2020

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Responsible Investing

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

28 Feb 2020

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

Responsible Investing

An inconvenient transition

28 Feb 2020

Responsible Investing

Climate data: Seeing through the fog

28 Feb 2020

Big data is heralded as the answer to almost every problem, so why not the climate crisis?

Responsible Investing

Nuclear: From pariah to saviour?

28 Feb 2020

Responsible Investing

How capitalism can help solve the climate crisis

28 Feb 2020

Despite the increasing clamour for a global ‘Green New Deal’, Steve Waygood explains why a complementary International Panel on Climate Finance (IPCF) is also needed if we are to rise to the challenges ahead.

Responsible Investing

Biological annihilation: The facts behind the threats to biodiversity and ecosystems

28 Feb 2020

AIQ Feature

Link: Embracing the power of connected thinking

22 Oct 2019

In an increasingly complex world, understanding the connections between people and ideas is crucial. AIQ looks at how organisations can put connected thinking into practice.

AIQ Feature

Analogies and models: Two approaches to thinking connectedly

24 Oct 2019

In an effort to understand how best to approach idea generation and collaboration, two critical components of successful investing, AIQ speaks to leading academics in the fields of analogical and model thinking.

AIQ Feature

The moral philosopher’s curse

25 Oct 2019

Marte Borhaug explores the ethical dilemmas and unintended consequences that can result from trying to do the right thing.

AIQ Feature

In search of a free lunch

5 Nov 2019

Correlations between groups of assets and within individual asset classes have changed in unexpected ways thanks to a decade of easy monetary policy. Our portfolio managers tell us what impact this has had on the way they manage money.

AIQ Feature

Connections and communities

28 Oct 2019

Today, a handful of urban centres are pulling away from their rivals – creating more innovation, more growth and more jobs. Those changes have deep implications; understanding them and what they mean for local communities takes joined-up thinking.

AIQ Feature

5G: Anatomy of an equity investment idea

11 Nov 2019

The evolution of wireless technology has fuelled a host of new mobile applications and helped propel companies such as Netflix. 5G, its next iteration, promises speeds up to 20 times faster than the current 4G. But to think only in terms of speed severely underestimates 5G’s potential to fundamentally transform the business landscape – though not without tremendous risk.

AIQ Feature

The AIQ Podcast: Link - The power of connected thinking

5 Dec 2019

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the role of connected thinking in technology, business and the environment.

AIQ Feature

Rage against the machine

1 Nov 2019

A new wave of tech-driven automation promises improved productivity and economic growth. But as humans are replaced by robots, a political backlash is building.

AIQ Feature

Supply chain wars

14 Nov 2019

With the US and China locking horns, we take a deeper look at the tangled and complex web of multinational relationships in the global economic ecosystem.

Real Assets

Private wants, public needs

4 Sep 2019

With society facing many urgent and complex challenges, deciding who is best-placed to deliver solutions has become an emotive and often political subject. We assess whether there is a better way to utilise the skills and resources of the public, private and third sectors for the greater good.

AIQ Feature

A question of trust: What’s behind blockchain technology

15 Nov 2019

A lot has been said about how blockchain may spark a technological revolution across every corner of the economy – not only in finance, but also areas such as medicine, marketing and supply chain management. What is less clear is how it could pose a hefty social challenge as well.

AIQ Feature

ESG: A keystone for stronger emerging markets

8 Jul 2019

Economic development is at a crossroads for emerging markets, and the road ahead will need to be paved with environmental, social and governance considerations.

AIQ Feature

Debt, consumers and technology: Three trends that will define China

8 Jul 2019

How China deals with the challenges of rising debt, a transition to a consumer economy and the technological ‘arms race’ with the West will have big implications for investors.

AIQ Feature

The EM competition for capital

24 May 2019

The Chinese economy is attracting more foreign capital due to structural changes and its belated entry into major bond and equity indices. These shifts could have significant implications for other emerging markets.

AIQ Feature

Us vs them: Ian Bremmer on politics, trade and technology

8 Jul 2019

We speak to the political scientist about the long-term themes affecting emerging markets, from the trade war to technological automation to climate change.

Fixed income

The EM framing fallacy: Emerging market debt and the trials of a misunderstood asset class

7 May 2019

How we frame things deeply affects how we process information and subsequently act on it. So much so that, despite convincing evidence to the contrary, it can be extremely hard to shake off a fabled preconception. It seems that once a label sticks it can be very hard to dislodge.

Fixed income

Sovereign interests: ESG matters in emerging market debt

31 May 2019

The emerging market debt universe offers investors an expanding pool of opportunities that may be better assessed when integrating environmental, social and governance factors.

AIQ Feature

The AIQ Podcast: Future of retirement

12 Nov 2019

The idea that in one’s sixties it might be time to step out of work and retire into a life of leisure is relatively recent. But with more people living longer, expectations of retirement are being reshaped.

AIQ Feature

The future of retirement

28 Feb 2019

AIQ Feature

The trouble with capitalism

28 Feb 2019

Around the world, political and economic liberalisation have gone hand in hand since the early 1980s. However, as more countries turn to populist leaders, could the world be about to fall out of love with free-market economics too?

AIQ Feature

The future of energy: Peak oil and the rise of renewables

28 Feb 2019

As we approach ‘peak oil’, what does this mean for the fossil fuel industry and alternative sources of energy?

Real Assets

Dream or dystopia: The future of cities

28 Feb 2019

Cities will face severe challenges over the coming decades, including digital disruption, population management and climate change. How they adapt to these pressures will determine the winning – and losing – cities of the future.

Insurance

The future of insurance

17 May 2019

The insurance industry has evolved rapidly since the financial crisis. The next decade is shaping up to be every bit as transformative as firms grapple with a host of factors, most notably the unfolding regulatory framework, digital disruption and climate change.

AIQ Feature

The big interview with David Miliband: The West in retreat

31 Jan 2019

In our Big Interview, David Miliband talks to AIQ about the growing humanitarian emergency in war-torn countries, the retreat from global engagement by the West and the future of centre-left politics.

Equities

The ties that bind

28 Feb 2019

Brexit continues to dominate headlines in the UK, but the European Union faces other long-term challenges, from the rise of Euroscepticism in Italy to the stalled progress of euro zone reform.

AIQ Feature

Can central banks maintain their independence?

14 Feb 2019

Central bank independence is widely regarded as a prerequisite for successful monetary policy. However, with economies having struggled over the past decade and inflation no longer seen as a problem, that view is being contested, argues Stewart Robertson, chief economist at Aviva Investors.

AIQ Feature

The future is Asian: An interview with Parag Khanna

20 Feb 2019

How will the rise of emerging Asian economies affect the global balance of market and economic power? AIQ speaks to a leading authority on the subject.

AIQ Feature

Currencies: the phoney war?

29 Nov 2018

The trade war between the United States and China is intensifying.

AIQ Feature

Europe after Brexit

29 Nov 2018

As the Brexit deadline looms, the impending rupture between the UK and Europe threatens to become the defining political issue of a generation.

AIQ Feature

Conscious decoupling: GDP and environmental sustainability

7 Nov 2018

As economist Kenneth Boulding once put it: “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist". Some economists have indeed argued it is possible to ‘de-couple’ economic growth from environmental damage.

AIQ Feature

Director or dictator ?

7 Nov 2018

If Google or Baidu didn’t exist, would we have search engines? If Mark Zuckerberg hadn’t dreamt up Facebook in his dorm room, would we have social media platforms?

AIQ Feature

Ethics and Alpha

7 Nov 2018

In search of clarity, we set out to provide a wayfinding tool for investors by trawling through the academic literature, interviewing the experts and contrasting the theory with reality. And while our focus is on equity markets, we also touch on some of the key factors to consider in fixed income and real assets.

AIQ Feature

Growing pains

7 Nov 2018

GDP: a wealth of meaning is crammed into those three letters. Gross domestic product is our principal index of economic welfare. It is the subject of conferences and hand-wringing editorials. It is the metric by which the success or failure of government policy is judged.

The AIQ Podcast

The AIQ Podcast: Ethics & Alpha

7 Nov 2018

In this latest episode of the AIQ Podcast, we interview Steve Waygood, Chief Responsible Investment Officer, in search of some clarity on investing responsibly.

AIQ Feature

F for fake

31 Oct 2018

Aliens invaded America on October 30, 1938. Radio announcers feverishly described the progress of Martian war machines across the country. Giant robots stalked the streets, firing heat-rays and releasing clouds of noxious smoke.

AIQ Feature

The Trump legacy

31 Oct 2018

The year was 2007. Alan Greenspan, who had recently retired from his role as chairman of the Federal Reserve, was touring Europe to promote his memoir The Age of Turbulence, a book he famously wrote in longhand on yellow legal pads while sitting in the bathtub.

Substance over style?

30 Sep 2019

Why an agnostic approach beats equity style biases.

Beyond the cave

23 Aug 2018

How do unconscious biases influence our behaviour? Learn more in this video.

The AIQ Podcast: Beyond the cave

10 Jul 2018

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast investigates how behavioural finance is being transformed by data science.

The future of fixed income

10 Jul 2018

We consider how technological advances, alternative data sources and shifting investor flow dynamics are changing the face of fixed income markets.

An alternative history of finance: What if China had never joined the WTO?

10 Jul 2018

In a new column, AIQ imagines how hypothetical scenarios in finance and economics would play out. In this issue, we explore how the world would look if China had never joined the World Trade Organization.

Beyond the cave: behavioural science meets data science

10 Jul 2018

The idea unconscious biases influence decision-making in financial markets is nothing new. But behavioural finance has taken on new relevance in the age of Big Data and artificial intelligence.

Measuring the intangible economy: An interview with Diane Coyle

10 Jul 2018

The Cambridge economist discusses the rise of intangible assets.

Can Abenomics survive without Abe?

10 Jul 2018

Shinzo Abe’s policy programme has started to lift Japan out of its long deflationary slump. But the road ahead is still a long one and political scandals could prevent him from finishing the job.

Bond benchmarks: yardstick or crutch

10 Jul 2018

Market indices are inherently inefficient. That can pose a problem for fund managers who rely too much on them as performance and risk benchmarks, explains Josh Lohmeier, head of North American investment grade credit at Aviva Investors.

Ticking time bomb: why deficits matter

10 Jul 2018

Government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced countries are approaching post-World War II highs, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to a worsening in economic conditions and demographic forces, argues Stewart Robertson, senior economist for the UK & Europe at Aviva Investors.

Everybody wants to rule the world

10 Jul 2018

As tech titans such as Google and Amazon attempt to conquer new markets and conglomerates continue to dominate in emerging economies, we look at the ingredients that determine whether diversification succeeds – or fails.

A crumbling empire

10 Jul 2018

The global economic architecture built from the ruins of World War II is under threat, with profound implications for investment.

The great digital detox

From Russian hackers interfering in foreign elections to high-profile corporate breaches, people are waking up to some harsh realities around data. We look at what the European call for a ‘Magna Carta’ for data has led to, and explore the investment implications of the growing scrutiny over data privacy.

The next frontier

Despite a torrid few months, frontier bond markets still have an important role to play in investors' portfolios.

The year of living dangerously: emerging markets go to the polls

1 Apr 2018

A series of elections in emerging markets may bring unwelcome uncertainty for investors in 2018.

The AIQ Podcast: The battle for innovation

2 Mar 2018

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast investigates the battle for innovation between China and the West.

Arrested development

2 Mar 2018

Millennials are maligned as a generation of self-absorbed tech-addicts. But their distinctive approach to spending and saving is set to reshape companies, markets and economies.

The fall and rise of millennials

1 Mar 2018

Millennials are maligned as a generation of self-absorbed tech-addicts. But their distinctive approach to spending and saving is set to reshape companies, markets and economies.

The AIQ Podcast: The fall and rise of millennials

1 Mar 2018

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the fall and rise of the millennial generation.

US economy: still rolling

1 Mar 2018

The US economy is enjoying its third longest span of uninterrupted growth since records began. While some argue it is a matter of time until the next recession arrives, the alarm bells are not ringing just yet.

Machine, platform, crowd: an interview with Erik Brynjolfsson

1 Mar 2018

The economist and author speaks to AIQ about the new technological breakthroughs reshaping economies and societies in both East and West.

Cryptocurrencies: craze or revolution?

1 Mar 2018

While the recent launch of Bitcoin futures on two leading derivatives exchanges may have given the world’s first ‘digital currency’ a stamp of legitimacy, doubts remain whether it, and other cryptocurrencies, will become a mainstream investible asset class.

Smart cities

1 Mar 2018

New technologies that would once have seemed the stuff of science fiction fantasy are quickly becoming reality; in the process transforming cities and creating investment opportunities.

The Fed's Phillips curve puzzle

1 Mar 2018

The apparent breakdown in the Phillips curve has left economists puzzled and created a dilemma for policymakers. However, the relationship between inflation and employment remains very much alive, meaning the Fed has a lot more work to do yet.

The pinch: an interview with David Willetts

1 Mar 2018

AIQ speaks to the Conservative party politician and peer about his research into intergenerational inequality.

The Big Interview: who wants to live forever?

1 Mar 2018

In our Big Interview, economist and best-selling author Andrew Scott considers the implications of increasing life expectancy for individuals, companies and policymakers.

China and the West. The battle for innovation.

1 Mar 2018

Once dismissed as the home of copycats and knock-offs, China is now a hotbed of technological innovation - and fast catching up with the West.

How to value FAANGs and BATs

1 Mar 2018

Tech stocks have risen sharply in value in recent years. Jason Bohnet explores whether these high valuations are justified.

In search of illiquidity premium

24 Oct 2017

A growing number of investors are looking to private assets to provide higher yields than liquid alternatives, but few are targeting illiquidity premia explicitly, writes John Dewey.

What to do about asset bubbles

24 Oct 2017

With the global economy improving, central banks need to be ever watchful, and tighten policy in good time, to ensure siren calls on asset bubbles continue to ring hollow, says Michael Grady.

Inequality: for richer, for poorer

19 Oct 2017

Income inequality is rising across developed countries. What are the implications for economic growth?

Politics and the final frontier

18 Oct 2017

A recent trip to Central America and the Caribbean revealed much about the attractions and pitfalls of frontier markets, explains Aaron Grehan.

Trump, trade and technology

18 Oct 2017

In a wide-ranging interview, influential economist Pippa Malmgren considers the Trump presidency, Brexit and the future of capitalism.

It’s the education, stupid!

2 Oct 2017

The positive link between education and economic growth is well established. Bryony Deuchars explores what this means for emerging-market investors.

AIQ Issue 003 Artificial Intelligence

Our cover story focuses on the revolutionary area of artificial intelligence which, depending on your perspective, will transform humankind for the better or lead to a dystopian future where machines control the planet. Technology features prominently elsewhere in this issue, as we look at Big Data and 3D printing. We also consider a world without central bank support and the future of asset management.

AIQ Issue 002 Spheres of influence

In our cover story, we look at whether national self-interest in the US, China and Russia will lead to the emergence of new ‘spheres of influence’, and the potential economic and market ramifications. In this issue, we also take a look at how robo advice is shaking up the intermediary market, the fintech revolution in China and why demographic shifts will be a major driver of investment performance.

AIQ Issue 001 The Amazon Effect

Our cover story looks at the insatiable ambition of Amazon to conquer new markets. Also in this issue, Aviva Investors’ CEO Euan Munro outlines what the asset management industry needs to do to win back public trust; while US policymaker Andy Stern makes his case for a universal basic income.

House View

A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.

Cinderella science?

Recent AIQ Features

The Little Book of Data

AIQ issue 011: The climate crisis

AIQ issue 010: Connected thinking

AIQ issue 009: Emerging markets

AIQ issue 008: The future of

AIQ issue 007: Ethics and alpha

AIQ issue 006: Beyond the cave

AIQ issue 005: Millennials

AIQ issue 004: China's future

Previous editions

House View

Cinderella science?

Recent AIQ Features

The Little Book of Data

AIQ issue 011: The climate crisis

AIQ issue 010: Connected thinking

AIQ issue 009: Emerging markets

AIQ issue 008: The future of

AIQ issue 007: Ethics and alpha

AIQ issue 006: Beyond the cave

AIQ issue 005: Millennials

AIQ issue 004: China's future

Previous editions

House View

Institutional investor

Intermediary

Private investor

Commercial borrower