• Real Assets
  • Real Estate
  • Global Real Estate

Challenging times ahead for global real estate

Despite an improving economic outlook, global real estate is likely to offer lower returns over the next five years. But opportunities remain for discerning investors, writes Chris Urwin.

2 minute read

cardboard boxes in a warehouse

The outlook for the world economy is rosier than it has been for some time. With broad-based growth becoming entrenched – global GDP growth is expected to reach 3.5 per cent in 2017 – and inflation making a comeback, monetary policy has reached a turning point. The removal of extreme policy stimulus is now appropriate, and we expect interest rates to rise modestly over the next five years.

What does this mean for investors in prime real estate? Although stronger GDP growth bodes well for income growth, it is likely to diminish the relative attractiveness of real estate over other asset classes. We expect global property yields to rise from 2018 onwards as monetary policy stimulus eases, albeit at a slow pace.

Diminishing returns

Overall, global real estate investors should be braced for lower returns over the next five years compared with the period of robust performance the asset class has enjoyed since 2010. Returns will be front-loaded, and they are likely to deteriorate across the majority of markets between 2018 and 2021.

Figure one shows our pricing analysis over a five-year investment horizon, based on the hurdle rate – the required rate of return required to compensate for risk – in each market. It indicates the growing scarcity of good-value assets. Nevertheless, the outlook varies considerably across markets and sectors and discerning investors should be able to identify pockets of opportunity.

Figure 1. Global over-under pricing analysis by market size, five-year investment horizon
graph showing share of investment universe

US and UK: yield expansion

The markets that led the real estate cycle – the US and the UK – are edging towards yield expansion. In the US, capitalisation rates are already edging higher. CoStar data suggests more than half of national office markets saw yield expansion in the first quarter of 2017. Yet the impact of stronger growth on capital values has been minimal thus far, with rental growth offsetting the effect on yields. 

The UK has experienced some pricing volatility over the last twelve months, partly due to the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit (although the real-estate cycle was already at an advanced stage before the referendum). Economic headwinds will continue to affect UK real-estate performance over the remainder of 2017 and beyond, and the short-term impact on rental growth will be most acute in the more structurally challenged parts of the retail sector.

Europe and Asia

Compared with the UK and the US, relative pricing in European markets looks attractive, and spreads to government bond yields remain well above the long-term average. But the window of opportunity to find value in European real estate is closing fast amid a clamour for prime assets; we expect little further capital growth.

Retail assets in Germany, and retail and office assets in the Netherlands, offer decent prospects of return. Spanish retail and Italian industrial assets also offer good value, but come with much higher macroeconomic risks than northern European markets.

Investment demand remains robust in Australia and Japan, where decent relative pricing is coupled with a positive rental outlook. Demand also remains strong across other Asia-Pacific markets despite weaker fundamentals, although strong rental growth is expected in some sectors – including Singapore offices and Hong Kong retail – towards the end of the decade. The performance of real-estate assets in the region over the next five years will depend to a large degree on the rate of growth of the Chinese economy and the direction of Chinese capital flows.

Strategies

While short-term performance will be dragged down by rising yields, global real estate still offers good value for long-term income-seeking investors, particularly compared with the returns available on fixed-income investments in the current low interest rate environment.

Selecting the right location will be key to effective investment over the next five years as value deteriorates. Cities with strong demand dynamics are likely to benefit further from strengthening business confidence and increased private investment, and investors should consider adding exposure to income risk in these locations.

Across global sectors, logistics boasts the strongest outlook, especially in the US and northern Europe (see figure two). The continued rise of e-commerce, combined with a shortage of modern logistics stock in many markets, is underpinning global demand for these assets. For investors seeking income, the relatively high level of yield on logistics properties will appear especially attractive.

Figure 2: Total returns by sector, per annum
bar chart returns by sector

Notes

  1. To carry out this analysis we calculated hurdle rates (required returns) for global markets for the beginning of each year from 2001 to 2017. By comparing the hurdle rate at the start of the year with the total return over the subsequent five years for each market, we developed an over/under pricing estimate for each year for all markets. For the 2017 period we used our in-house prime total return forecasts. We assumed the property premium – which consists of the volatility, liquidity and transparency premium, and in selected markets, the currency premium – remains constant through time, so the only variable that changes in our analysis of the historic hurdle rate is the adjusted risk-free rate of return. We also incorporated in-house real estate stock estimates.
  2. All markets are based on data for prime assets, apart from the US.

Author

Related views

Important information

THIS IS A MARKETING COMMUNICATION

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (AIGSL). Unless stated otherwise any views and opinions are those of Aviva Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by Aviva Investors and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested. Nothing in this material, including any references to specific securities, assets classes and financial markets is intended to or should be construed as advice or recommendations of any nature. Some data shown are hypothetical or projected and may not come to pass as stated due to changes in market conditions and are not guarantees of future outcomes. This material is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment.

In Europe this document is issued by Aviva Investors Luxembourg S.A. Registered Office: 2 rue du Fort Bourbon, 1st Floor, 1249 Luxembourg. Supervised by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. An Aviva company. In the UK Issued by Aviva Investors Global Services Limited. Registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: St Helens, 1 Undershaft, London EC3P 3DQ. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119178. In Switzerland, this document is issued by Aviva Investors Schweiz GmbH.

In Singapore, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Asia Pte. Limited (AIAPL) for distribution to institutional investors only. Please note that AIAPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIAPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIAPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Singapore with registration number 200813519W, holds a valid Capital Markets Services Licence to carry out fund management activities issued under the Securities and Futures Act (Singapore Statute Cap. 289) and Asian Exempt Financial Adviser for the purposes of the Financial Advisers Act (Singapore Statute Cap.110). Registered Office: 1 Raffles Quay, #27-13 South Tower, Singapore 048583. In Australia, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Pacific Pty Ltd (AIPPL) for distribution to wholesale investors only. Please note that AIPPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIPPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIPPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Australia with Australian Business No. 87 153 200 278 and Australian Company No. 153 200 278, holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 411458) issued by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Business Address: Level 27, 101 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000 Australia.

The name “Aviva Investors” as used in this material refers to the global organization of affiliated asset management businesses operating under the Aviva Investors name. Each Aviva investors’ affiliate is a subsidiary of Aviva plc, a publicly- traded multi-national financial services company headquartered in the United Kingdom. Aviva Investors Canada, Inc. (“AIC”) is located in Toronto and is registered with the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) as a Portfolio Manager, an Exempt Market Dealer, and a Commodity Trading Manager. Aviva Investors Americas LLC is a federally registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Aviva Investors Americas LLC ("AIA") is a federally registered investment advisor with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. AIA is also a commodity trading advisor (“CTA”) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). AIA’s Form ADV Part 2A, which provides background information about the firm and its business practices, is available upon written request to: Compliance Department, 225 West Wacker Drive, Suite 2250, Chicago, IL 60606.