Numerous emerging markets are going to the polls in 2019. We survey some of the key results so far and look ahead to the big votes in the second half of the year.
An illustrated look at the elections that matter in 2019.
Ukraine
Generel election - April
In a television show, ‘Servant of the People’, Volodymyr Zelensky played a schoolteacher who accidentally becomes president. This year he became president for real, winning a huge majority in April’s election on an anti-corruption ticket. Zelensky has sought to reassure sceptical investors by affirming his commitment to reform and refusing populist calls to default on government debt.
Indonesia
General election - April
Joko Widodo beat retired general Prabowo Subianto to win his second term in office as Indonesia’s president, reflecting the popularity of his efforts to tackle corruption, boost growth and reduce poverty. Investors will be hoping for more progress on infrastructure investment and cutting red tape.
India
General election - May
Having won a decisive victory at the Indian election, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to use its majority to press ahead with policies to drive economic growth, such as liberalising the labour market and infrastructure development. But while investors welcomed the result, Modi’s divisive brand of Hindu nationalism is a lingering concern.
South Africa
General election - May
As expected, the African National Congress (ANC) won the general election, but with a reduced parliamentary majority. President Cyril Ramaphosa will now try to tackle corruption to win back disaffected voters, without alienating powerful elements of the ANC. Reforming land laws and bailing out the troubled state energy provider Eskom are other priorities.
Argentina
General election - October
President Mauricio Macri’s hopes of winning re-election have been damaged by last year’s currency crisis, which stoked inflation and plunged Argentina into recession. He will hope his record in building infrastructure will help him see off populist opposition. Elsewhere in Latin America, Bolivia and Uruguay also hold general elections in October.
Related views
AIQ Feature
Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
21 Jul 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.
Read more
Risk
The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator
21 Jul 2020
Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.
Read more
AIQ Feature
The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner
21 Jul 2020
With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters
21 Jul 2020
In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?
Read more
AIQ Feature
Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?
21 Jul 2020
Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?
21 Jul 2020
The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?
Read more
Risk
Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters
21 Jul 2020
As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.
Read more
AIQ Feature
The Economist: John Kay
21 Jul 2020
AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.
Read more
AIQ Feature
The risks on the savings and retirement journey
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has caused significant volatility in financial markets, creating headaches for defined contribution pension schemes seeking to deliver robust outcomes. Overcoming this requires a full map of risks along the savings and retirement journey, argues Francois de Bruin.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Policy moves into the great unknown, but at what cost?
21 Jul 2020
Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Trial and error: The value of learning from mistakes
21 Jul 2020
A common characteristic of successful people and organisations is an ability to recognise and quickly learn from their mistakes. UK Equity Income Fund Manager Chris Murphy shares the lessons he has learned from an eventful career.
Read more
Equities
Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power
21 Jul 2020
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.
Read more
Resilience
Resilience in credit: All calm for now, but big tests lie in store
17 Jul 2020
For credit investors, resilience is about taking appropriate levels of risk, understanding market dynamics, and identifying companies best prepared for the future. All these qualities could be tested given the wide range of possible outcomes as the world begins to recover from COVID-19.
Read more
AIQ Feature
Real assets and the quest for resilient income
6 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has made life harder for already yield-starved investors, and each asset class faces its own challenges. We draw on the latest thinking from our Real Assets House View and research team to highlight where reliable income sources can still be found in real asset markets.
Read more
Important information
This document is for professional clients and advisers only. Not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (AIGSL). As at 3 July 2019. Unless stated otherwise any views and opinions are those of Aviva Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by Aviva Investors and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested. Nothing in this material, including any references to specific securities, assets classes and financial markets is intended to or should be construed as advice or recommendations of any nature. This material is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment.
In the UK & Europe this material has been prepared and issued by AIGSL, registered in England No.1151805. Registered Office: St. Helen’s, 1 Undershaft, London, EC3P 3DQ. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. In France, Aviva Investors France is a portfolio management company approved by the French Authority “Autorité des Marchés Financiers”, under n° GP 97-114, a limited liability company with Board of Directors and Supervisory Board, having a share capital of 17 793 700 euros, whose registered office is located at 14 rue Roquépine, 75008 Paris and registered in the Paris Company Register under n° 335 133 229. In Switzerland, this document is issued by Aviva Investors Schweiz GmbH, authorised by FINMA as a distributor of collective investment schemes.
In Singapore, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Asia Pte. Limited (AIAPL) for distribution to institutional investors only. Please note that AIAPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIAPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIAPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Singapore with registration number 200813519W, holds a valid Capital Markets Services Licence to carry out fund management activities issued under the Securities and Futures Act (Singapore Statute Cap. 289) and Asian Exempt Financial Adviser for the purposes of the Financial Advisers Act (Singapore Statute Cap.110). Registered Office: 1Raffles Quay, #27-13 South Tower, Singapore 048583. In Australia, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Pacific Pty Ltd (AIPPL) for distribution to wholesale investors only. Please note that AIPPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIPPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIPPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Australia with Australian Business No. 87 153 200 278 and Australian Company No. 153 200 278, holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 411458) issued by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Business Address: Level 30, Collins Place, 35 Collins Street, Melbourne, Vic 3000, Australia.
The name “Aviva Investors” as used in this material refers to the global organization of affiliated asset management businesses operating under the Aviva Investors name. Each Aviva investors’ affiliate is a subsidiary of Aviva plc, a publicly- traded multi-national financial services company headquartered in the United Kingdom. Aviva Investors Canada, Inc. (“AIC”) is located in Toronto and is registered with the Ontario Securities Commission (“OSC”) as a Portfolio Manager, an Exempt Market Dealer, and a Commodity Trading Manager. Aviva Investors Americas LLC is a federally registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Aviva Investors Americas is also a commodity trading advisor (“CTA”) and commodity pool operator (“CPO”) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”), and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). AIA’s Form ADV Part 2A, which provides background information about the firm and its business practices, is available upon written request to: Compliance Department, 225 West Wacker Drive, Suite 2250, Chicago, IL 60606
23965-RA19/0804/03072020