AIQ Features

Recent AIQ features

Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty

21 Jul 2020

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.

The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator

21 Jul 2020

Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.

The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner

21 Jul 2020

With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.

Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters

21 Jul 2020

In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.

Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?

21 Jul 2020

COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.

Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution

21 Jul 2020

COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?

Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?

21 Jul 2020

Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.

Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?

21 Jul 2020

The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?

Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters

21 Jul 2020

As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.

The Economist: John Kay

21 Jul 2020

AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.

The risks on the savings and retirement journey

21 Jul 2020

COVID-19 has caused significant volatility in financial markets, creating headaches for defined contribution pension schemes seeking to deliver robust outcomes. Overcoming this requires a full map of risks along the savings and retirement journey, argues Francois de Bruin.

Policy moves into the great unknown, but at what cost?

21 Jul 2020

Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.

Trial and error: The value of learning from mistakes

21 Jul 2020

A common characteristic of successful people and organisations is an ability to recognise and quickly learn from their mistakes. UK Equity Income Fund Manager Chris Murphy shares the lessons he has learned from an eventful career.

Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power

21 Jul 2020

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

Resilience in credit: All calm for now, but big tests lie in store

17 Jul 2020

For credit investors, resilience is about taking appropriate levels of risk, understanding market dynamics, and identifying companies best prepared for the future. All these qualities could be tested given the wide range of possible outcomes as the world begins to recover from COVID-19.

Real assets and the quest for resilient income

6 Jul 2020

COVID-19 has made life harder for already yield-starved investors, and each asset class faces its own challenges. We draw on the latest thinking from our Real Assets House View and research team to highlight where reliable income sources can still be found in real asset markets.

AIQ: The Risk Edition

COVID-19 has shown how quickly a single event can disrupt a globalised economy. AIQ explores some of the biggest threats facing the world, from cybersecurity to environmental disasters, and considers the investment implications.

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AIQ: The Climate Edition

Can the world get back on track towards meeting the commitments of 2015’s Paris Agreement? From science to psychology; from land use to big data; we examine the challenges posed by climate change and assess potential solutions.

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The Little Book of Data

Visual vignettes to help us better understand the world and provoke thought, sign up to receive our hard copy coffee table book of data visualisations, The Little Book of Data.

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AIQ 011: The Climate Edition

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

More than 40 years since a senior NASA scientist told US Congress of concerns about human activities disrupting the climate, experts are warning of an impending climate catastrophe and the financial sector is wrestling with the implications.

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

Psychological barriers can prevent people from acting to avert the climate threat, even when they recognise the problem. So how can we best engage individuals, companies and communities in the quest for solutions?

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

Until recently, many investors made light of dire warnings of the risks posed by assets becoming “stranded” by climate change. However, as the threat becomes reality, fears are mounting that whole industries could be wiped out.

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

An inconvenient transition

Despite deafening calls for countries and companies to step up to fight the climate crisis, research suggests individuals – especially in the developed world – could also make a massive difference if they committed to getting by with less. But will they?

Climate data: Seeing through the fog

Big data is heralded as the answer to almost every problem, so why not the climate crisis?

Nuclear: From pariah to saviour?

As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. Despite lingering public anxiety around safety, there are growing calls for the world to look again at nuclear power as part of the solution to the climate crisis.

How capitalism can help solve the climate crisis

Despite the increasing clamour for a global ‘Green New Deal’, Steve Waygood explains why a complementary International Panel on Climate Finance (IPCF) is also needed if we are to rise to the challenges ahead.

Biological annihilation: The facts behind the threats to biodiversity and ecosystems

Over 100 billion people have walked the planet, making a gigantic stamp on the Earth. Around three quarters of the land and around two-thirds of the marine environment have been significantly altered by humans, impacting the carbon cycle and changing the prospects for many species.

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AIQ 010: Connected Thinking

Link: Embracing the power of connected thinking

In an increasingly complex world, understanding the connections between people and ideas is crucial. AIQ looks at how organisations can put connected thinking into practice.

Analogies and models: Two approaches to thinking connectedly

In an effort to understand how best to approach idea generation and collaboration, two critical components of successful investing, AIQ speaks to leading academics in the fields of analogical and model thinking.

The moral philosopher’s curse

Marte Borhaug explores the ethical dilemmas and unintended consequences that can result from trying to do the right thing.

In search of a free lunch

Correlations between groups of assets and within individual asset classes have changed in unexpected ways thanks to a decade of easy monetary policy. Our portfolio managers tell us what impact this has had on the way they manage money.

Connections and communities

Today, a handful of urban centres are pulling away from their rivals – creating more innovation, more growth and more jobs. Those changes have deep implications; understanding them and what they mean for local communities takes joined-up thinking.

5G: Anatomy of an equity investment idea

The evolution of wireless technology has fuelled a host of new mobile applications and helped propel companies such as Netflix. 5G, its next iteration, promises speeds up to 20 times faster than the current 4G. But to think only in terms of speed severely underestimates 5G’s potential to fundamentally transform the business landscape – though not without tremendous risk.

The AIQ Podcast: Link - The power of connected thinking

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the role of connected thinking in technology, business and the environment.

Rage against the machine

A new wave of tech-driven automation promises improved productivity and economic growth. But as humans are replaced by robots, a political backlash is building.

Supply chain wars

With the US and China locking horns, we take a deeper look at the tangled and complex web of multinational relationships in the global economic ecosystem.

Private wants, public needs

With society facing many urgent and complex challenges, deciding who is best-placed to deliver solutions has become an emotive and often political subject. We assess whether there is a better way to utilise the skills and resources of the public, private and third sectors for the greater good.

A question of trust: What’s behind blockchain technology

A lot has been said about how blockchain may spark a technological revolution across every corner of the economy – not only in finance, but also areas such as medicine, marketing and supply chain management. What is less clear is how it could pose a hefty social challenge as well.

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AIQ 009: Emerging Markets

ESG: A keystone for stronger emerging markets

Economic development is at a crossroads for emerging markets, and the road ahead will need to be paved with environmental, social and governance considerations.

Debt, consumers and technology: Three trends that will define China

How China deals with the challenges of rising debt, a transition to a consumer economy and the technological ‘arms race’ with the West will have big implications for investors.

The EM competition for capital

The Chinese economy is attracting more foreign capital due to structural changes and its belated entry into major bond and equity indices. These shifts could have significant implications for other emerging markets.

Us vs them: Ian Bremmer on politics, trade and technology

We speak to the political scientist about the long-term themes affecting emerging markets, from the trade war to technological automation to climate change.

The EM framing fallacy: Emerging market debt and the trials of a misunderstood asset class

How we frame things deeply affects how we process information and subsequently act on it. So much so that, despite convincing evidence to the contrary, it can be extremely hard to shake off a fabled preconception. It seems that once a label sticks it can be very hard to dislodge.

Sovereign interests: ESG matters in emerging market debt

The emerging market debt universe offers investors an expanding pool of opportunities that may be better assessed when integrating environmental, social and governance factors.

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AIQ 008: The Future Edition

The AIQ Podcast: Future of retirement

The idea that in one’s sixties it might be time to step out of work and retire into a life of leisure is relatively recent. But with more people living longer, expectations of retirement are being reshaped.

The future of retirement

The trouble with capitalism

Around the world, political and economic liberalisation have gone hand in hand since the early 1980s. However, as more countries turn to populist leaders, could the world be about to fall out of love with free-market economics too?

The future of energy: Peak oil and the rise of renewables

As we approach ‘peak oil’, what does this mean for the fossil fuel industry and alternative sources of energy?

Dream or dystopia: The future of cities

Cities will face severe challenges over the coming decades, including digital disruption, population management and climate change. How they adapt to these pressures will determine the winning – and losing – cities of the future.

The future of insurance

The insurance industry has evolved rapidly since the financial crisis. The next decade is shaping up to be every bit as transformative as firms grapple with a host of factors, most notably the unfolding regulatory framework, digital disruption and climate change.

The big interview with David Miliband: The West in retreat

In our Big Interview, David Miliband talks to AIQ about the growing humanitarian emergency in war-torn countries, the retreat from global engagement by the West and the future of centre-left politics.

The ties that bind

Brexit continues to dominate headlines in the UK, but the European Union faces other long-term challenges, from the rise of Euroscepticism in Italy to the stalled progress of euro zone reform.

Can central banks maintain their independence?

Central bank independence is widely regarded as a prerequisite for successful monetary policy. However, with economies having struggled over the past decade and inflation no longer seen as a problem, that view is being contested, argues Stewart Robertson, chief economist at Aviva Investors.

The future is Asian: an interview with Parag Khanna

How will the rise of emerging Asian economies affect the global balance of market and economic power? AIQ speaks to a leading authority on the subject.

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AIQ 007: Ethics and Alpha

Currencies: the phoney war?

The trade war between the United States and China is intensifying.

Europe after Brexit

As the Brexit deadline looms, the impending rupture between the UK and Europe threatens to become the defining political issue of a generation.

Conscious decoupling: GDP and environmental sustainability

As economist Kenneth Boulding once put it: “Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist". Some economists have indeed argued it is possible to ‘de-couple’ economic growth from environmental damage.

Director or dictator ?

If Google or Baidu didn’t exist, would we have search engines? If Mark Zuckerberg hadn’t dreamt up Facebook in his dorm room, would we have social media platforms?

Ethics and Alpha

In search of clarity, we set out to provide a wayfinding tool for investors by trawling through the academic literature, interviewing the experts and contrasting the theory with reality. And while our focus is on equity markets, we also touch on some of the key factors to consider in fixed income and real assets.

Growing pains

GDP: a wealth of meaning is crammed into those three letters. Gross domestic product is our principal index of economic welfare. It is the subject of conferences and hand-wringing editorials. It is the metric by which the success or failure of government policy is judged.

The AIQ Podcast: Ethics & Alpha

In this latest episode of the AIQ Podcast, we interview Steve Waygood, Chief Responsible Investment Officer, in search of some clarity on investing responsibly.

F for fake

Aliens invaded America on October 30, 1938. Radio announcers feverishly described the progress of Martian war machines across the country. Giant robots stalked the streets, firing heat-rays and releasing clouds of noxious smoke.

The Trump legacy

The year was 2007. Alan Greenspan, who had recently retired from his role as chairman of the Federal Reserve, was touring Europe to promote his memoir The Age of Turbulence, a book he famously wrote in longhand on yellow legal pads while sitting in the bathtub.

Substance over style?

Why an agnostic approach beats equity style biases.

Beyond the cave

How do unconscious biases influence our behaviour? Learn more in this video.

The AIQ Podcast: Beyond the cave

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast investigates how behavioural finance is being transformed by data science.

The future of fixed income

We consider how technological advances, alternative data sources and shifting investor flow dynamics are changing the face of fixed income markets.

An alternative history of finance: What if China had never joined the WTO?

In a new column, AIQ imagines how hypothetical scenarios in finance and economics would play out. In this issue, we explore how the world would look if China had never joined the World Trade Organization.

Beyond the cave: behavioural science meets data science

The idea unconscious biases influence decision-making in financial markets is nothing new. But behavioural finance has taken on new relevance in the age of Big Data and artificial intelligence.

Can Abenomics survive without Abe?

Shinzo Abe’s policy programme has started to lift Japan out of its long deflationary slump. But the road ahead is still a long one and political scandals could prevent him from finishing the job.

Bond benchmarks: yardstick or crutch

Market indices are inherently inefficient. That can pose a problem for fund managers who rely too much on them as performance and risk benchmarks, explains Josh Lohmeier, head of North American investment grade credit at Aviva Investors.

Ticking time bomb: why deficits matter

Government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced countries are approaching post-World War II highs, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to a worsening in economic conditions and demographic forces, argues Stewart Robertson, senior economist for the UK & Europe at Aviva Investors.

Everybody wants to rule the world

As tech titans such as Google and Amazon attempt to conquer new markets and conglomerates continue to dominate in emerging economies, we look at the ingredients that determine whether diversification succeeds – or fails.

A crumbling empire

The global economic architecture built from the ruins of World War II is under threat, with profound implications for investment.

The great digital detox

From Russian hackers interfering in foreign elections to high-profile corporate breaches, people are waking up to some harsh realities around data. We look at what the European call for a ‘Magna Carta’ for data has led to, and explore the investment implications of the growing scrutiny over data privacy.

The next frontier

Despite a torrid few months, frontier bond markets still have an important role to play in investors' portfolios.

The year of living dangerously: emerging markets go to the polls

A series of elections in emerging markets may bring unwelcome uncertainty for investors in 2018.

The AIQ Podcast: The battle for innovation

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast investigates the battle for innovation between China and the West.

Arrested development

Millennials are maligned as a generation of self-absorbed tech-addicts. But their distinctive approach to spending and saving is set to reshape companies, markets and economies.

The fall and rise of millennials

Millennials are maligned as a generation of self-absorbed tech-addicts. But their distinctive approach to spending and saving is set to reshape companies, markets and economies.

The AIQ Podcast: The fall and rise of millennials

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the fall and rise of the millennial generation.

US economy: still rolling

The US economy is enjoying its third longest span of uninterrupted growth since records began. While some argue it is a matter of time until the next recession arrives, the alarm bells are not ringing just yet.

Machine, platform, crowd: an interview with Erik Brynjolfsson

The economist and author speaks to AIQ about the new technological breakthroughs reshaping economies and societies in both East and West.

Cryptocurrencies: craze or revolution?

While the recent launch of Bitcoin futures on two leading derivatives exchanges may have given the world’s first ‘digital currency’ a stamp of legitimacy, doubts remain whether it, and other cryptocurrencies, will become a mainstream investible asset class.

Smart cities

New technologies that would once have seemed the stuff of science fiction fantasy are quickly becoming reality; in the process transforming cities and creating investment opportunities.

The Fed's Phillips curve puzzle

The apparent breakdown in the Phillips curve has left economists puzzled and created a dilemma for policymakers. However, the relationship between inflation and employment remains very much alive, meaning the Fed has a lot more work to do yet.

The pinch: an interview with David Willetts

AIQ speaks to the Conservative party politician and peer about his research into intergenerational inequality.

The Big Interview: who wants to live forever?

In our Big Interview, economist and best-selling author Andrew Scott considers the implications of increasing life expectancy for individuals, companies and policymakers.

China and the West. The battle for innovation.

Once dismissed as the home of copycats and knock-offs, China is now a hotbed of technological innovation - and fast catching up with the West.

How to value FAANGs and BATs

Tech stocks have risen sharply in value in recent years. Jason Bohnet explores whether these high valuations are justified.

In search of illiquidity premium

A growing number of investors are looking to private assets to provide higher yields than liquid alternatives, but few are targeting illiquidity premia explicitly, writes John Dewey.

What to do about asset bubbles

With the global economy improving, central banks need to be ever watchful, and tighten policy in good time, to ensure siren calls on asset bubbles continue to ring hollow, says Michael Grady.

Inequality: for richer, for poorer

Income inequality is rising across developed countries. What are the implications for economic growth?

Politics and the final frontier

A recent trip to Central America and the Caribbean revealed much about the attractions and pitfalls of frontier markets, explains Aaron Grehan.

Trump, trade and technology

In a wide-ranging interview, influential economist Pippa Malmgren considers the Trump presidency, Brexit and the future of capitalism.

It’s the education, stupid!

The positive link between education and economic growth is well established. Bryony Deuchars explores what this means for emerging-market investors.

AIQ 003: Artificial Intelligence

We focus on the revolutionary area of artificial intelligence which, depending on your perspective, will transform humankind for the better or lead to a dystopian future where machines control the planet. Technology features prominently elsewhere in this issue, as we look at Big Data and 3D printing. We also consider a world without central bank support and the future of asset management.

AIQ 002: Spheres of Influence

We look at whether national self-interest in the US, China and Russia will lead to the emergence of new ‘spheres of influence’, and the potential economic and market ramifications. In this issue, we also take a look at how robo advice is shaking up the intermediary market, the fintech revolution in China and why demographic shifts will be a major driver of investment performance.

AIQ 001: The Amazon Effect

We consider the insatiable ambition of Amazon to conquer new markets. Also in this issue, Aviva Investors’ CEO Euan Munro outlines what the asset management industry needs to do to win back public trust; while US policymaker Andy Stern makes his case for a universal basic income.

Macro House View

Representing the best collective judgement of Aviva Investors on the current and future investment environment.

Roll of the dice

Recent AIQ features

AIQ: The Risk Edition

AIQ: The Climate Edition

The Little Book of Data

AIQ 011: The Climate Edition

AIQ 010: Connected Thinking

AIQ 009: Emerging Markets

AIQ 008: The Future Edition

AIQ 007: Ethics and Alpha

AIQ 006: Behavioural Finance

AIQ 005: Millennials

AIQ 004: China's Future

Previous editions

AIQ 003: Artificial Intelligence

AIQ 002: Spheres of Influence

AIQ 001: The Amazon Effect

Macro House View

Roll of the dice

Recent AIQ features

AIQ: The Risk Edition

AIQ: The Climate Edition

The Little Book of Data

AIQ 011: The Climate Edition

AIQ 010: Connected Thinking

AIQ 009: Emerging Markets

AIQ 008: The Future Edition

AIQ 007: Ethics and Alpha

AIQ 006: Behavioural Finance

AIQ 005: Millennials

AIQ 004: China's Future

Previous editions

AIQ 003: Artificial Intelligence

AIQ 002: Spheres of Influence

AIQ 001: The Amazon Effect

Macro House View

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