Latest economic research thinking
The Globalisation Expert: Ian Goldin
21 Jul 2020
Globalisation is a double-edged sword. Ian Goldin, professor of globalisation and development at the University of Oxford and author of The Butterfly Defect, discusses the systemic risks that have built up as an array of interconnections have spread their wings of influence across the globe.
The Superforecaster: Warren Hatch
21 Jul 2020
Warren Hatch is CEO of Good Judgment Inc, a global network of superforecasters to help companies address complex problems, developed following research by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. Hatch explains what makes a superforecaster different and the importance of teamwork to deliver more robust outcomes.
The Probability Specialist: Sam Savage
21 Jul 2020
Professor Sam L. Savage of Stanford University, author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, helped pioneer the field of probability management while working with Royal Dutch Shell. He discusses how we can use scenario planning and probabilistic modelling to help us deal with complex risks.
The Risk Engineer: Warren Black
21 Jul 2020
Warren Black is a qualified engineer, risk professional and complex systems theorist. He established Complexus in 2016 to research how risks need to be controlled within complex organisations, projects and programmes. AIQ asks him whether current risk management practices are adequate in a world transitioning into the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
What do rising US-China tensions mean for global markets?
24 Jun 2020
In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, Aviva Investors experts discuss the prospects for financial markets and the world economy in the face of escalating hostilities between the US and China.
Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view
23 Jun 2020
In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.
Have traditional safe havens lost their edge?
9 Jun 2020
COVID-19 has reminded investors of the importance of defensive positions within portfolios during times of stress. But are the ‘safe havens’ of the past still up to the task?
Will COVID-19 prove a watershed for ESG?
14 May 2020
COVID-19 has thrown new light on the interdependencies in human and natural ecosystems, and the vulnerabilities of a closely networked world. Aviva Investors’ responsible investment specialists ask whether this will prove a turning point for environmental, social and governance issues.
The AIQ Podcast: Climate emergency
6 May 2020
This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast goes back to basics on climate: we explore leading scientists’ understanding of how the world is changing, as well as the investment community’s response.
COVID-19: What will unprecedented policy response mean for economies and markets?
27 Apr 2020
While global policymakers around the world have acted with unprecedented speed and force to the COVID-19 pandemic, their actions are unlikely to prevent the world falling into the deepest recession since World War II.
COVID-19: This time is different?
3 Apr 2020
While the COVID-19 pandemic may be unlike anything financial markets have experienced before, the past still offers valuable lessons for investors trying to make sense of the crisis, explains Euan Munro.
Black swan or grey rhino: Should investors have seen COVID-19 coming?
27 Mar 2020
The devastating coronavirus outbreak has prompted renewed discussion of “black swans”: rare, unexpected events that wreak havoc on markets and economies. But is COVID-19 really a black swan? And to what extent can investors ensure their portfolios are resilient to sudden shocks of this kind?