Latest economic research thinking
Interest rates on hold, but not in reverse
26 Feb 2019
Financial markets have surged since the start of the year after central banks appeared to put monetary policy tightening on hold. Our investment teams give their views on where monetary policy goes next and what that means for asset prices.
Future of the euro zone: An interview with Ashoka Mody
21 Feb 2019
The received wisdom on the euro zone is that it needs to become more tightly integrated to survive. To ensure the resilience of the monetary union, fiscal transfers to peripheral economies and risk-sharing via the mutual issuance of Eurobonds are necessary and perhaps inevitable. Princeton economist Ashoka Mody takes a different view.
The future is Asian: An interview with Parag Khanna
20 Feb 2019
How will the rise of emerging Asian economies affect the global balance of market and economic power? AIQ speaks to a leading authority on the subject.
Can central banks maintain their independence?
14 Feb 2019
Central bank independence is widely regarded as a prerequisite for successful monetary policy. However, with economies having struggled over the past decade and inflation no longer seen as a problem, that view is being contested, argues Stewart Robertson, chief economist at Aviva Investors.
Rising volatility may boost yen but hit dollar
12 Feb 2019
Greenback’s role as a haven is threatened by US debt load and cyclical shortcomings
The big interview with David Miliband: The West in retreat
31 Jan 2019
In our Big Interview, David Miliband talks to AIQ about the growing humanitarian emergency in war-torn countries, the retreat from global engagement by the West and the future of centre-left politics.
Finding flow: four rules for successful collaboration
31 Jan 2019
Good collaboration is key to success in almost every field, from business to finance to sport. We explore how organisations can encourage staff to work together to share ideas, avoid mistakes and improve performance.
Why a US recession in 2019 is unlikely
8 Jan 2019
Given the apparently close historical relationship between various financial indicators and the economy, some commentators have been quick to talk up the danger of a US recession in view of recent market developments. Such fears appear unfounded, even if growth is likely to slow, argues Michael Grady.
Can the ‘Tropical Trump’ rescue Brazil?
6 Dec 2018
Markets may have reacted positively to the election of Jair Bolsonaro as president of Brazil, but investors would be advised to temper their optimism given the political challenges he will face when he takes office in the New Year.
The Italian budget drama
30 Oct 2018
The Italian government’s plans to sharply hike spending leave it on a collision course with the EU. But financial markets, as well as Brussels, will determine whether the populists in Rome can deliver on their electoral pledges.
Tariffed: who are the losers in Trump’s trade war?
1 Oct 2018
Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports are stoking market volatility, but there are also longer-term implications for economic growth in the US and beyond.
GDP: time for reform?
22 Aug 2018
Gross domestic product is our chief measurement of economic health. But GDP is failing to account for the dynamics of modern economies – and some experts are calling for reform.