Latest economic research thinking
Why a US recession in 2019 is unlikely
8 Jan 2019
Given the apparently close historical relationship between various financial indicators and the economy, some commentators have been quick to talk up the danger of a US recession in view of recent market developments. Such fears appear unfounded, even if growth is likely to slow, argues Michael Grady.
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Can the ‘Tropical Trump’ rescue Brazil?
6 Dec 2018
Markets may have reacted positively to the election of Jair Bolsonaro as president of Brazil, but investors would be advised to temper their optimism given the political challenges he will face when he takes office in the New Year.
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The Italian budget drama
30 Oct 2018
The Italian government’s plans to sharply hike spending leave it on a collision course with the EU. But financial markets, as well as Brussels, will determine whether the populists in Rome can deliver on their electoral pledges.
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Tariffed: who are the losers in Trump’s trade war?
1 Oct 2018
Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports are stoking market volatility, but there are also longer-term implications for economic growth in the US and beyond.
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The AIQ Podcast: The great digital detox
11 Sep 2018
This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast looks at what the European call for a ‘Magna Carta’ for data has led to, and explores the investment implications of the growing scrutiny over data privacy.
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GDP: time for reform?
22 Aug 2018
Gross domestic product is our chief measurement of economic health. But GDP is failing to account for the dynamics of modern economies – and some experts are calling for reform.
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Italian and Spanish drama unlikely to turn into full-blown crisis
17 Jul 2018
Changes of governments in Italy and Spain have prompted warnings of fresh political turbulence in Europe. Yet neither event is likely to pose a near-term challenge to the integrity of the euro zone or the EU.
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An alternative history of finance: What if China had never joined the WTO?
10 Jul 2018
In a new column, AIQ imagines how hypothetical scenarios in finance and economics would play out. In this issue, we explore how the world would look if China had never joined the World Trade Organization.
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Beyond the cave: behavioural science meets data science
10 Jul 2018
The idea unconscious biases influence decision-making in financial markets is nothing new. But behavioural finance has taken on new relevance in the age of Big Data and artificial intelligence.
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Can Abernomics survive without Abe?
10 Jul 2018
Shinzo Abe’s policy programme has started to lift Japan out of its long deflationary slump. But the road ahead is still a long one and political scandals could prevent him from finishing the job.
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Ticking time bomb: why deficits matter
10 Jul 2018
Government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced countries are approaching post-World War II highs, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to a worsening in economic conditions and demographic forces, argues Stewart Robertson, senior economist for the UK & Europe at Aviva Investors.
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A crumbling empire
10 Jul 2018
The global economic architecture built from the ruins of World War II is under threat, with profound implications for investment.
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