Latest economic research thinking

Why a US recession in 2019 is unlikely

8 Jan 2019

Given the apparently close historical relationship between various financial indicators and the economy, some commentators have been quick to talk up the danger of a US recession in view of recent market developments. Such fears appear unfounded, even if growth is likely to slow, argues Michael Grady.

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Can the ‘Tropical Trump’ rescue Brazil?

6 Dec 2018

Markets may have reacted positively to the election of Jair Bolsonaro as president of Brazil, but investors would be advised to temper their optimism given the political challenges he will face when he takes office in the New Year.

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The Italian budget drama

30 Oct 2018

The Italian government’s plans to sharply hike spending leave it on a collision course with the EU. But financial markets, as well as Brussels, will determine whether the populists in Rome can deliver on their electoral pledges.

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Tariffed: who are the losers in Trump’s trade war?

1 Oct 2018

Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports are stoking market volatility, but there are also longer-term implications for economic growth in the US and beyond.

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The AIQ Podcast: The great digital detox

11 Sep 2018

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast looks at what the European call for a ‘Magna Carta’ for data has led to, and explores the investment implications of the growing scrutiny over data privacy.

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GDP: time for reform?

22 Aug 2018

Gross domestic product is our chief measurement of economic health. But GDP is failing to account for the dynamics of modern economies – and some experts are calling for reform.

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Italian and Spanish drama unlikely to turn into full-blown crisis

17 Jul 2018

Changes of governments in Italy and Spain have prompted warnings of fresh political turbulence in Europe. Yet neither event is likely to pose a near-term challenge to the integrity of the euro zone or the EU.

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An alternative history of finance: What if China had never joined the WTO?

10 Jul 2018

In a new column, AIQ imagines how hypothetical scenarios in finance and economics would play out. In this issue, we explore how the world would look if China had never joined the World Trade Organization.

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Beyond the cave: behavioural science meets data science

10 Jul 2018

The idea unconscious biases influence decision-making in financial markets is nothing new. But behavioural finance has taken on new relevance in the age of Big Data and artificial intelligence.

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Can Abernomics survive without Abe?

10 Jul 2018

Shinzo Abe’s policy programme has started to lift Japan out of its long deflationary slump. But the road ahead is still a long one and political scandals could prevent him from finishing the job.

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Ticking time bomb: why deficits matter

10 Jul 2018

Government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced countries are approaching post-World War II highs, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to a worsening in economic conditions and demographic forces, argues Stewart Robertson, senior economist for the UK & Europe at Aviva Investors.

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A crumbling empire

10 Jul 2018

The global economic architecture built from the ruins of World War II is under threat, with profound implications for investment.

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AIQ Investment Thinking

Get our perspective on key themes influencing investment markets globally.
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House View

A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.

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