Recent thinking
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
4 Nov. 2024
This month, our fixed-income investment teams discuss US elections, IMF meetings, US versus European high yield, managing declining rates for cash, and what the future might hold in store for gilts.
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Illiquidity premia in private debt: Q3 2024
30 Oct. 2024
In our latest private markets deep dive, our research team crunches the data to see how evolving macro conditions are reflected in private debt returns.
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A tale of two cities: Factoring liquidity into risk-based capital
22 Oct. 2024
Hong Kong’s new risk-based capital framework is reshaping the insurance landscape, pushing insurers to rethink their balance sheet strategies and liquidity management. In this article, Alastair Sewell discusses the evolving asset allocation trends and the opportunities insurers face to enhance capital efficiency and long-term growth.
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Striking a balance: Key themes from the first eight months of 2024 AGMs
21 Oct. 2024
Annual general meetings (AGMs) are an opportunity for responsible investors to share their priorities with companies and express their views on key elements of strategy and governance. Our Stewardship team reviews our 2024 AGM engagement and voting activity.
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Navigating nature: Opportunities for the investor of tomorrow
16 Oct. 2024
Our society, economies and financial systems are embedded in nature, not external to it. This paper sets out the actions we are taking to understand nature-related risks and opportunities to deliver outcomes that meet our clients’ needs, and to support nature-related global goals.
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Power play: Why political risk matters for emerging-market debt investors
11 Oct. 2024
In this article, we explore why measuring and continually monitoring geopolitical risks is essential for investors in EM debt.
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
10 Oct. 2024
In our October edition of Bond Voyage, our fixed-income teams reflect on US elections, US rates, France’s slide towards the periphery of EU issuers, and ESG considerations in Asia.
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Multi-asset allocation views: Where next for markets after the summer storms?
9 Oct. 2024
Volatility returned to markets in the third quarter of the year. While the short-term drivers are not unduly worrying, Sunil Krishnan argues multi-asset investors will need to be watchful over the medium term.
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Only connect: How a holistic approach to investment stewardship can enhance client outcomes
27 Sep. 2024
From direct investments and engagement with companies to dialogue with governments and regulators, we believe stewardship efforts can deliver better outcomes for clients.
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Seizing the moment: The outlook for real estate debt
24 Sep. 2024
Gregor Bamert, Sima Kotecha and Nick Solomon discuss the recovery in real estate debt markets in 2024 and the opportunities emerging.
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
16 Sep. 2024
This month, we discuss the books that inspired our investment teams over the summer.
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Standing tall: Three factors behind the resilience of emerging-market debt
13 Sep. 2024
In this article, we explore what’s behind emerging markets’ impressive performance in the face of global economic volatility, and investigate how EM debt investors can take advantage.
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Get networking: Will the next decade be a golden age for UK infrastructure?
3 Sep. 2024
While there are obstacles to overcome, the coming years could see new opportunities for the UK government and the private sector to work together on infrastructure projects, says Darryl Murphy.
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An ABS renaissance? Why it may be time for insurers to reconsider asset-backed securities
2 Sep. 2024
Securitisation performs a vital role in capital markets and asset-backed securities have historically been a core holding for insurance companies. This article revisits the investment thesis for ABS and explores why the stage may be set for something of a renaissance.
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
9 Aug. 2024
In this summer edition of Bond Voyage, we discuss topical themes in liquidity, emerging-market debt, investment-grade credit and global sovereign bonds.
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Illiquidity premia in private debt: Q2 2024
6 Aug. 2024
In our latest real assets deep dive, our research team explains how our data on illiquidity premia indicates the benefits of a multi-asset approach to private debt investing.
House View
No one can predict the future. But our quarterly House View sets out the collective wisdom of our investment teams on the current state of global markets – and where they might be heading.
The Little Book of Data
Good data visualisation makes us see the world anew. The sixth edition of The Little Book of Data presents original and curated visuals, charts and graphics to offer a fresh perspective on topics shaping our world.
Equities
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Multi-asset allocation views: Where next for markets after the summer storms?
Volatility returned to markets in the third quarter of the year. While the short-term drivers are not unduly worrying, Sunil Krishnan argues multi-asset investors will need to be watchful over the medium term.
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Casting a wider net: Equity income investors find opportunities in global tech and industrials
Large tech firms such as Meta have announced they will pay dividends for the first time in 2024, illustrating the opportunities equity income investors can find beyond “traditional” dividend-paying stocks.
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Tech’s tightening grip: What rising US stock concentration means for equity investors
Soaring technology share prices have driven US stock market concentration to unprecedented levels and pushed the US market to a record premium relative to other markets. While both trends could persist, investors need to be aware of the implications, argues Joao Toniato.
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The war on bugs: Climate change contributes to growth in the pest-control industry
Pest control has become a growing priority for city residents and authorities all year round, as rising temperatures and other factors boost the populations of many pest species. But in creating adaptation solutions, the sector could also represent a long-term investment opportunity.
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From cash rich to cash strapped? Why the US consumer boom could run out of road
Our investment teams explain why buoyant US consumer spending will have to weaken eventually. That could pose problems for debt-laden consumer-facing companies.
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Softly does it? A Q&A with Peter Fitzgerald and Ian Pizer
The managers of the AIMS Target Return strategy explain why the prospects for a range of asset classes suddenly look much brighter.
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China versus the West:The ongoing rise of economic nationalism
The US and China continue to trade blows as each side looks to limit the other’s access to vital products. With industrial policies also making a comeback, companies are having to navigate a rapidly changing business environment. We look at the key implications for investors.
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Tipping points and transformation: Getting on the right side of change
Rapid changes in the global economy could tip some sectors into low-carbon phases faster than incumbents expect, with important investment implications.
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Supercharge me: The power of network effects
Network effects can boost a company’s growth and build durability – when combined with other strengths, argues Francois de Bruin.
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What does the data say? Three charts for multi-asset investors
We take a visual approach to explain what’s happening with the US debt ceiling, LVMH and gold.
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Buy it or build it: Why innovation is key in healthcare
Healthcare is a dynamic industry, but patent expiries from 2025 and drug-price reform in the US pose challenges. Innovation will be key for continued success, as experts from our credit, equity and ESG teams explain.
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Fragilities exposed as cheap money disappears
Cracks have begun to emerge in the banking sector in recent weeks. As the tide of cheap money that has flooded financial markets for more than a decade ebbs, members of our investment teams are on the lookout for other signs of distress.
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Theory of reflexivity: How share prices can influence companies’ intrinsic value
When markets fall, equity investors should become more constructive on the prospects for future returns. However, as prices fall, intrinsic value may be influenced. Discerning which factors drive this could help investors capitalise and avoid getting caught in value traps.
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Global equity income: Swimming against the tide
Despite the recent upturn in global equities, Richard Saldanha explains why investors should be cautious in chasing a cyclical rally.
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What does the data say? Three charts multi-asset investors should know about
We take a visual approach to explain what’s happening with bonds, equities and oil.
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Follow the leader: Why companies should take the drama out of CEO succession planning
Botched leadership handovers can severely impair company performance. To satisfy investors, boards need to take succession planning more seriously, argue Trevor Green and Louise Piffaut.
Fixed income
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
This month, our fixed-income investment teams discuss US elections, IMF meetings, US versus European high yield, managing declining rates for cash, and what the future might hold in store for gilts.
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Power play: Why political risk matters for emerging-market debt investors
In this article, we explore why measuring and continually monitoring geopolitical risks is essential for investors in EM debt.
-
Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
In our October edition of Bond Voyage, our fixed-income teams reflect on US elections, US rates, France’s slide towards the periphery of EU issuers, and ESG considerations in Asia.
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Multi-asset allocation views: Where next for markets after the summer storms?
Volatility returned to markets in the third quarter of the year. While the short-term drivers are not unduly worrying, Sunil Krishnan argues multi-asset investors will need to be watchful over the medium term.
-
Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
This month, we discuss the books that inspired our investment teams over the summer.
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Standing tall: Three factors behind the resilience of emerging-market debt
In this article, we explore what’s behind emerging markets’ impressive performance in the face of global economic volatility, and investigate how EM debt investors can take advantage.
-
An ABS renaissance? Why it may be time for insurers to reconsider asset-backed securities
Securitisation performs a vital role in capital markets and asset-backed securities have historically been a core holding for insurance companies. This article revisits the investment thesis for ABS and explores why the stage may be set for something of a renaissance.
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
In this summer edition of Bond Voyage, we discuss topical themes in liquidity, emerging-market debt, investment-grade credit and global sovereign bonds.
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Time to get active: Finding opportunities in emerging-market debt
Emerging markets have remained robust amid the economic and political uncertainties of 2024, but active management will be important if debt investors are to identify standout performers over the coming months.
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Riding the technical tailwinds: The outlook for investment-grade credit
Credit markets have had a comparatively easy ride so far in 2024, and investment-grade corporate spreads are now at some of their tightest levels for a long time. But investors must guard against complacency.
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Liquidity optimisation for insurers: Building a bespoke portfolio solution
In the third part of our liquidity optimisation series, we look at how bespoke liquidity portfolios that take into account the interplay between different assets can suit the needs of insurers.
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The difficult last mile: Inflation, Treasury supply and the outlook for global sovereign bonds
With the focus shifting from interest rate cuts to the likelihood of rates staying higher for longer, Steve Ryder and Daniel Bright assess the possible outcomes and implications of higher rates and monetary policy divergence in debt markets.
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
In a special European Championships edition of Bond Voyage, we discuss topical themes in liquidity, emerging-market debt, investment-grade credit and global sovereign bonds (with a little help from Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappé).
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
This month, we discuss fiscal discipline in emerging markets, investment-grade credit portfolio construction, potential opportunities for sovereign investors in Canada and the merits of a developed-market focus in global high yield.
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Emerging-market debt turns the corner: The EM investment universe grows amid improved resilience
Emerging-market debt analyst Carmen Altenkirch reports back from the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank meetings in Washington.
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
This month, we discuss Spring Meetings and the path for rates.
Liquidity
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Bond Voyage: A journey into fixed income
This month, our fixed-income investment teams discuss US elections, IMF meetings, US versus European high yield, managing declining rates for cash, and what the future might hold in store for gilts.
-
An ABS renaissance? Why it may be time for insurers to reconsider asset-backed securities
Securitisation performs a vital role in capital markets and asset-backed securities have historically been a core holding for insurance companies. This article revisits the investment thesis for ABS and explores why the stage may be set for something of a renaissance.
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Liquidity optimisation for insurers: Building a bespoke portfolio solution
In the third part of our liquidity optimisation series, we look at how bespoke liquidity portfolios that take into account the interplay between different assets can suit the needs of insurers.
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A bigger splash: How much liquidity do I need?
The importance of holding liquidity is well understood by large institutions. But how much is enough? In the first part of our new article series on liquidity optimisation, Alastair Sewell investigates the key considerations for different investor types.
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Testing the water: The regulatory outlook for liquidity funds
The Financial Conduct Authority has proposed material changes to money market funds. We look into the implications for investors.
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Rates, regulation and the dash for cash: The outlook for liquidity investors in 2024
Alastair Sewell answers the seven key questions on the minds of liquidity investors heading into 2024.
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Three, two, one…Cash returns set for lift-off
With interest rates set to remain higher for longer and inflation gradually falling, money market funds can offer investors a way to access positive real yields on cash, says Alastair Sewell.
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Better late than never: European Commission constructive on money market funds
After the European Commission released its long-awaited assessment report on European money market fund regulation, Alastair Sewell discusses the main implications for investors.
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Cash is king (again): Higher rates spurring interest in money market funds
Members of Aviva Investors’ liquidity team explain why rising global interest rates and problems in the US banking sector are fuelling demand for money market funds.
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Opportunities in cash: Our 2023 liquidity outlook
Our liquidity team give their take on what the challenging market environment means for positioning in 2023.
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Time to rethink collateral cash
In this Q&A, Alastair Sewell explains why investors need to urgently rethink their approaches to collateral cash management.
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Nothing happened, twice: Addressing the key questions on recent volatility for sterling money market fund investors
After the volatility that rocked UK markets in recent weeks, Alastair Sewell reflects on how this impacted money market funds and what’s next.
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European money market fund reform: Preparing for change
European regulators are set to introduce significant reforms to money market funds. Investors need to be ready, says Alastair Sewell.
Private markets
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Illiquidity premia in private debt: Q3 2024
In our latest private markets deep dive, our research team crunches the data to see how evolving macro conditions are reflected in private debt returns.
-
Seizing the moment: The outlook for real estate debt
Gregor Bamert, Sima Kotecha and Nick Solomon discuss the recovery in real estate debt markets in 2024 and the opportunities emerging.
-
Get networking: Will the next decade be a golden age for UK infrastructure?
While there are obstacles to overcome, the coming years could see new opportunities for the UK government and the private sector to work together on infrastructure projects, says Darryl Murphy.
-
Illiquidity premia in private debt: Q2 2024
In our latest real assets deep dive, our research team explains how our data on illiquidity premia indicates the benefits of a multi-asset approach to private debt investing.
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Relative value in real assets: A spectrum of opportunities
Our real assets research team drills into proprietary data to compare risk and return across sectors.
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Rents, rates and the refinancing gap: The outlook for real estate debt
After a challenging 12 months for real estate debt investors, Gregor Bamert discusses what lies ahead for the market in 2024.
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Illiquidity premia in private debt: Q4 2023
In our latest real assets deep dive, our research team crunches the data to see how evolving macro conditions are reflected in private debt returns.
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Common ground: Earning a social licence to operate in real asset investing
Successful real asset investing requires acceptance of asset managers’ practices and procedures from a variety of stakeholders. We explore what this means for managers, their clients and investment outcomes.
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Plus ça change…The outlook for infrastructure debt in 2024
Infrastructure demonstrated characteristic resilience in 2023 in the face of significant macroeconomic headwinds. Darryl Murphy from our infrastructure team explains why he expects current themes to persist in 2024.
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Tech, trees and tailwinds: The outlook for climate transition real assets
In this Q&A, James Tarry and Luke Layfield explore the themes shaping the landscape for real asset investors with a climate transition focus.
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Changing course: Creating a stable investment framework for offshore wind
Better market mechanisms and grid connection arrangements are essential to restore a stable investment environment in the offshore wind sector, as Nick Molho explains.
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Illiquidity premia in real assets: Q3 2023
Our real assets research team crunch the data to see how evolving macro conditions are reflected in private market returns.
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Against the current: Seeking resilience in real estate equity
A broad-based recovery in UK and European real estate looks unlikely in 2023, but discerning investors can still find value, say Imogen Ebbs and George Fraser-Harding.
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As one door closes… How changes in long income are creating value opportunities
Renos Booth, Isabel Gossling and Kris McPhail from our real estate long income team discuss the importance of selectivity to uncover opportunities and how new buyers can fill the void left by DB pension schemes.
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Relative value in real assets: Q2 2023
Our real assets research team drill into proprietary data to compare risk and return across sectors, drawing out those showing most relative value.
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Deals delayed and crowded trades…But investors can still find value in infrastructure debt
Private infrastructure debt still offers a broad spectrum of opportunities, but investors face complex challenges. In this Q&A, our infrastructure debt team contemplate the current state of the market and where it goes from here.
Economic research
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Striking a balance: Key themes from the first eight months of 2024 AGMs
Annual general meetings (AGMs) are an opportunity for responsible investors to share their priorities with companies and express their views on key elements of strategy and governance. Our Stewardship team reviews our 2024 AGM engagement and voting activity.
-
Only connect: How a holistic approach to investment stewardship can enhance client outcomes
From direct investments and engagement with companies to dialogue with governments and regulators, we believe stewardship efforts can deliver better outcomes for clients.
-
Boosting low-carbon investment in the UK: A Policy Roadmap
Our in-depth Roadmap for the UK’s journey towards a low-carbon economy contains policy recommendations to unlock private investment in the transition.
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Blueprints for a greener economy: Creating a transition planning ecosystem
National transition plans can give investors support, confidence and direction to accelerate the flow of finance to bring about a low-carbon economy. As such, they should be seen as a strategic opportunity.
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Nothing to fear: Sustainable investing trade-offs
Sustainable investing, and the supposed trade-offs involved, have been a topic of heated debate. But trade-offs are a fundamental part of all types of investment; the key is to be clear about your objectives, as Mirza Baig explains.
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The tipping point for climate finance: Making financial flows consistent with the Paris Agreement
Transition plans, including from governments in response to the Global Stocktake, will be crucial to bring about the shift to a low-emissions, climate-resilient world. Markets need clear implementation signals to align capital with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Our in-depth report calls for the creation of a transition-plan ecosystem connecting all levels of the global economy.
-
China versus the West:The ongoing rise of economic nationalism
The US and China continue to trade blows as each side looks to limit the other’s access to vital products. With industrial policies also making a comeback, companies are having to navigate a rapidly changing business environment. We look at the key implications for investors.
-
Disability inclusion in the workplace: Taking down the barriers
Disabled employees continue to face a variety of hurdles to cope with in addition to their day job. We look at how employers can help remove those barriers to allow everyone to thrive.
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Accelerating climate solutions: The Edinburgh Earth Initiative in profile
In the 17th and 18th centuries, academics at the University of Edinburgh helped drive the Industrial Revolution. Today, they are connecting with businesses to tackle the climate emergency. Words by Miles Costello.
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Buy it or build it: Why innovation is key in healthcare
Healthcare is a dynamic industry, but patent expiries from 2025 and drug-price reform in the US pose challenges. Innovation will be key for continued success, as experts from our credit, equity and ESG teams explain.
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Getting a taste for fiscal intervention, but at what cost?
Fiscal intervention is, again, a vital part of the government policy toolkit, supporting plans to boost domestic industries and fight climate change. But while well-intended, such measures will add to already elevated debt levels, with significant implications for investors, as Michael Grady explains.
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Forget what you think you know: Staying humble in a world of rising risk
In a world where potential pitfalls loom around every corner, Peter Fitzgerald and Ian Pizer explain why investors need to look beyond what financial models are telling them to keep portfolios resilient to the challenges ahead.
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Fragilities exposed as cheap money disappears
Cracks have begun to emerge in the banking sector in recent weeks. As the tide of cheap money that has flooded financial markets for more than a decade ebbs, members of our investment teams are on the lookout for other signs of distress.
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What does the data say? Five charts on financial fragilities
We take a visual approach to explain what’s happening with banks.
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LGBTQ+ inclusion in the workplace: Creating psychological safety
Each experience is unique, but lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, non-binary and other non-heteronormative people (LGBTQ+) still face huge challenges, in and out of the workplace. Companies should do more to support them and foster a culture of inclusion.
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Engaging on neurodiversity: What can be learned from other DE&I initiatives
Many diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives have seen improvements in recent years, but neurodiversity has not progressed at the same pace. Abigail Herron explores what can be applied from other successful DE&I campaigns to put neurodiversity firmly in the spotlight.
Responsible investment
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Striking a balance: Key themes from the first eight months of 2024 AGMs
Annual general meetings (AGMs) are an opportunity for responsible investors to share their priorities with companies and express their views on key elements of strategy and governance. Our Stewardship team reviews our 2024 AGM engagement and voting activity.
-
Navigating nature: Opportunities for the investor of tomorrow
Our society, economies and financial systems are embedded in nature, not external to it. This paper sets out the actions we are taking to understand nature-related risks and opportunities to deliver outcomes that meet our clients’ needs, and to support nature-related global goals.
-
Only connect: How a holistic approach to investment stewardship can enhance client outcomes
From direct investments and engagement with companies to dialogue with governments and regulators, we believe stewardship efforts can deliver better outcomes for clients.
-
Get networking: Will the next decade be a golden age for UK infrastructure?
While there are obstacles to overcome, the coming years could see new opportunities for the UK government and the private sector to work together on infrastructure projects, says Darryl Murphy.
-
Boosting low-carbon investment in the UK: A Policy Roadmap
Our in-depth Roadmap for the UK’s journey towards a low-carbon economy contains policy recommendations to unlock private investment in the transition.
-
Blueprints for a greener economy: Creating a transition planning ecosystem
National transition plans can give investors support, confidence and direction to accelerate the flow of finance to bring about a low-carbon economy. As such, they should be seen as a strategic opportunity.
-
Nothing to fear: Sustainable investing trade-offs
Sustainable investing, and the supposed trade-offs involved, have been a topic of heated debate. But trade-offs are a fundamental part of all types of investment; the key is to be clear about your objectives, as Mirza Baig explains.
-
The war on bugs: Climate change contributes to growth in the pest-control industry
Pest control has become a growing priority for city residents and authorities all year round, as rising temperatures and other factors boost the populations of many pest species. But in creating adaptation solutions, the sector could also represent a long-term investment opportunity.
-
Common ground: Earning a social licence to operate in real asset investing
Successful real asset investing requires acceptance of asset managers’ practices and procedures from a variety of stakeholders. We explore what this means for managers, their clients and investment outcomes.
-
Plus ça change…The outlook for infrastructure debt in 2024
Infrastructure demonstrated characteristic resilience in 2023 in the face of significant macroeconomic headwinds. Darryl Murphy from our infrastructure team explains why he expects current themes to persist in 2024.
-
Tech, trees and tailwinds: The outlook for climate transition real assets
In this Q&A, James Tarry and Luke Layfield explore the themes shaping the landscape for real asset investors with a climate transition focus.
-
Changing course: Creating a stable investment framework for offshore wind
Better market mechanisms and grid connection arrangements are essential to restore a stable investment environment in the offshore wind sector, as Nick Molho explains.
-
The tipping point for climate finance: Making financial flows consistent with the Paris Agreement
Transition plans, including from governments in response to the Global Stocktake, will be crucial to bring about the shift to a low-emissions, climate-resilient world. Markets need clear implementation signals to align capital with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Our in-depth report calls for the creation of a transition-plan ecosystem connecting all levels of the global economy.
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The time to lead: Reforming multilateral development banks through a climate lens
To have a chance of limiting global warming to less than two degrees, the world must unlock huge investments in emerging markets. This is prompting calls for the reform of multilateral development banks, but will this be enough?
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Disability inclusion in the workplace: Taking down the barriers
Disabled employees continue to face a variety of hurdles to cope with in addition to their day job. We look at how employers can help remove those barriers to allow everyone to thrive.
-
Deals delayed and crowded trades…But investors can still find value in infrastructure debt
Private infrastructure debt still offers a broad spectrum of opportunities, but investors face complex challenges. In this Q&A, our infrastructure debt team contemplate the current state of the market and where it goes from here.
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