Recent thinking
Real Assets
Real Estate: The Last Dance for gut feel investing
7 Jul. 2020
Commercial property investors could learn a lot from the data-led revolution that has taken place in basketball in recent years, as Chris Urwin explains.
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AIQ Feature
Real assets and the quest for resilient income
6 Jul. 2020
COVID-19 has made life harder for already yield-starved investors, and each asset class faces its own challenges. We draw on the latest thinking from our Real Assets House View and research team to highlight where reliable income sources can still be found in real asset markets.
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Equities
Health first: Finding resilience in pharmaceuticals
2 Jul. 2020
COVID-19 has led to a new appreciation of the importance of healthcare in ensuring all members of society thrive. So where should investors be looking to find resilience in an industry facing enormous change?
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Equities
Why COVID-19 is unlikely to trigger a fresh financial crisis
1 Jul. 2020
In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, Oliver Judd and Jaime Ramos Martin explain why banks are well-placed to withstand the economic fallout from COVID-19.
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Covid-19
The CX Factor
30 Jun. 2020
Amid the coronavirus lockdown, asset managers are finding new ways to communicate with their clients remotely. The industry has much to learn from tech and e-commerce companies that deliver top-class client experience from a distance.
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Real Assets
Tomorrow’s world: COVID-19 and the long-term future of commercial real estate
29 Jun. 2020
Chris Urwin and Jonathan Bayfield look beyond the near-term disruption to real estate to assess the longer-term prospects for the retail, office and logistics sectors.
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Covid-19
Multi-asset allocation views: How long will the COVID-19 damage last?
26 Jun. 2020
Nearly three months after COVID-19 caused markets to crash and sent countries across the globe into lockdown, debates continue over what the post-COVID world will look like and the extent of the long-term damage. Sunil Krishnan remains cautious.
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Equities
What do rising US-China tensions mean for global markets?
24 Jun. 2020
In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, Aviva Investors experts discuss the prospects for financial markets and the world economy in the face of escalating hostilities between the US and China.
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Equities
Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view
23 Jun. 2020
In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.
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Real Assets
Defaults, disruption and development: Real assets adjust to the new normal
22 Jun. 2020
While lockdown measures gradually start to ease, it is still far from business as usual in the real assets sector. Mark Versey explains the impact for investors.
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Real Assets
Logistics: ‘Last mile’ or further to run?
19 Jun. 2020
Following a decade of bumper demand and returns, many experts are questioning whether logistics real estate assets have reached their prime or whether they still have further to run. Vivienne Bolla argues the latter.
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Covid-19
COVID-19 and data infrastructure: Will demand translate into profit?
18 Jun. 2020
During the initial outbreak of COVID-19, we published a report on the underlying long-term trends supporting data infrastructure. Since then, much about the world as we knew it has changed. Laurence Monnier assesses how many of the trends we identified remain intact and whether the surge in demand for data services and infrastructure will translate into investment opportunities.
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Covid-19
COVID-19, comp and doing the right thing: Why corporate values have never been more critical
16 Jun. 2020
With annual general meetings now taking place virtually, shareholders, employees and suppliers have had to adjust to lockdowns. While some of the immediate impacts will be phased out with the opening of the economy, stewardship priorities and corporate values may change forever.
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Covid-19
Evidence and ambition: The new rules of engagement on climate change
15 Jun. 2020
Mirza Baig explains why far-off commitments on climate change by energy companies and their lenders are no longer enough, and why COVID-19 has catalysed rather than derailed investor engagement on the issue.
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AIQ Feature
Have traditional safe havens lost their edge?
9 Jun. 2020
COVID-19 has reminded investors of the importance of defensive positions within portfolios during times of stress. But are the ‘safe havens’ of the past still up to the task?
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AIQ Feature
What makes a company resilient in a crisis?
9 Jun. 2020
As the COVID-19 pandemic hits global economies, equity investors are redoubling their focus on corporate resilience. But what does resilience mean in the current context – and which companies have it?
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The Little Book of Data
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AIQ Features
Real assets and the quest for resilient income
6 Jul. 2020
COVID-19 has made life harder for already yield-starved investors, and each asset class faces its own challenges. We draw on the latest thinking from our Real Assets House View and research team to highlight where reliable income sources can still be found in real asset markets.
Read more
Have traditional safe havens lost their edge?
9 Jun. 2020
COVID-19 has reminded investors of the importance of defensive positions within portfolios during times of stress. But are the ‘safe havens’ of the past still up to the task?
Read more
What makes a company resilient in a crisis?
9 Jun. 2020
As the COVID-19 pandemic hits global economies, equity investors are redoubling their focus on corporate resilience. But what does resilience mean in the current context – and which companies have it?
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Cinderella science? Why portfolio construction holds the key to resilient investment outcomes
9 Jun. 2020
It is one thing to have a good investment idea, but quite another to extract the maximum potential from that idea and combine it with others to create an optimal portfolio. This is where portfolio construction comes in.
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Where to go in an income drought?
9 Jun. 2020
Income investors face multiple challenges – dividend cuts, historically low yields, rising corporate defaults, and an uncertain property market. Francois de Bruin goes in search of sustainable income sources.
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The AIQ Podcast: The psychology of climate change
4 Mar. 2020
This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the psychology of climate change and how to engage individuals in the quest for solutions.
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Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis
28 Feb. 2020
More than 40 years since a senior NASA scientist told US Congress of concerns about human activities disrupting the climate, experts are warning of an impending climate catastrophe and the financial sector is wrestling with the implications.
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Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change
28 Feb. 2020
As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.
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Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change
28 Feb. 2020
Psychological barriers can prevent people from acting to avert the climate threat, even when they recognise the problem. So how can we best engage individuals, companies and communities in the quest for solutions?
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Stranded! When assets become liabilities
28 Feb. 2020
Until recently, many investors made light of dire warnings of the risks posed by assets becoming “stranded” by climate change. However, as the threat becomes reality, fears are mounting that whole industries could be wiped out.
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‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions
28 Feb. 2020
With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.
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Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change
28 Feb. 2020
Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.
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Hot water: The threat of warming oceans
28 Feb. 2020
As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.
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An inconvenient transition
28 Feb. 2020
Despite deafening calls for countries and companies to step up to fight the climate crisis, research suggests individuals – especially in the developed world – could also make a massive difference if they committed to getting by with less. But will they?
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Climate data: Seeing through the fog
28 Feb. 2020
Big data is heralded as the answer to almost every problem, so why not the climate crisis?
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Nuclear: From pariah to saviour?
28 Feb. 2020
As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. Despite lingering public anxiety around safety, there are growing calls for the world to look again at nuclear power as part of the solution to the climate crisis.
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House View
A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.
Executive Summary
A summary of our outlook for economies and markets.
Key investment themes and risks
The six key themes and risks which our House View team expect to drive financial markets.
Macro forecasts: charts and commentary
Our round-up of major economies; featuring charts and commentary.
Global market outlook and asset allocation
What our House View means for asset allocation and portfolio construction.
Webcast
Keep up-to-date with our latest thoughts on financial markets by joining our interactive sessions.
Macro House View Q2 2020: COVID-19 and the economy – can the engine restart?
Join us for a quick discussion with Stewart Robertson, Senior Economist, and Jerome Nunan, Investment Director, Multi-Asset, as they discuss how COVID-19 and the containment measures implemented by governments around the world to deal with it have impacted our latest House View.