Elections, rates, AI and China

Professor Sam L. Savage of Stanford University, author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, helped pioneer the field of probability management while working with Royal Dutch Shell. He discusses how we can use scenario planning and probabilistic modelling to help us deal with complex risks.

Warren Black is a qualified engineer, risk professional and complex systems theorist. He established Complexus in 2016 to research how risks need to be controlled within complex organisations, projects and programmes. AIQ asks him whether current risk management practices are adequate in a world transitioning into the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Amid the coronavirus lockdown, asset managers are finding new ways to communicate with their clients remotely. The industry has much to learn from tech and e-commerce companies that deliver top-class client experience from a distance.

In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, Aviva Investors experts discuss the prospects for financial markets and the world economy in the face of escalating hostilities between the US and China.

In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.

COVID-19 has thrown new light on the interdependencies in human and natural ecosystems, and the vulnerabilities of a closely networked world. Aviva Investors’ responsible investment specialists ask whether this will prove a turning point for environmental, social and governance issues.

While global policymakers around the world have acted with unprecedented speed and force to the COVID-19 pandemic, their actions are unlikely to prevent the world falling into the deepest recession since World War II.

While the COVID-19 pandemic may be unlike anything financial markets have experienced before, the past still offers valuable lessons for investors trying to make sense of the crisis, explains Euan Munro.

The devastating coronavirus outbreak has prompted renewed discussion of “black swans”: rare, unexpected events that wreak havoc on markets and economies. But is COVID-19 really a black swan? And to what extent can investors ensure their portfolios are resilient to sudden shocks of this kind?

The human cost of COVID-19 is likely to rise significantly, along with its impact on economies and financial markets as nations enact measures to contain its spread. We summarise recent developments and what they might mean for European real assets markets.

With the start of the consultation for proposed changes to the measurement of inflation in the UK, we look at the likely impact to asset classes, the assets most affected, and the key issues investors should be aware of.

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.