Early on June 24, we learnt that the outcome of the UK referendum on membership of the European Union was a vote in favour of leaving.
We believe this will lead to a period of heightened economic and political uncertainty. Once the government gives formal notice of the decision to leave, it must then enter a period of negotiation on the terms of that exit. We believe that negotiation will be long and difficult, with a genuine possibility of a detrimental outcome with regards to access to the European single market.
In the near-term, we expect the economic impact of increased uncertainty and financial market distress could be enough to send the UK economy into recession in the second half of this year. We expect that the Bank of England will respond in due course by reducing interest rates and injecting liquidity into sterling markets.
We will continue to monitor events, including timelines and next steps announced by the government.
For further information, read our views of the economic consequences of leaving the EU.