Formulated for resilience

As the current economic cycle draws to a close, our buy-and-maintain team discuss opportunities and risks in credit markets.

How much do ocean circulation patterns impact economic outcomes and sovereign risk? Rick Stathers and Carmen Altenkirch assess El Niño, the climate phenomenon driving atmospheric circulation in the tropics, affecting everything from GDP to inflation and social stability.

James Vokins and Chris Higham explain why investment-grade bonds still offer value despite persistent market uncertainty.

Thomas Chinery and Justine Vroman discuss current conditions in the investment-grade market, the ECB’s “green QT” programme, and why oil and gas firms must go further and faster to decarbonise.

Members of Aviva Investors’ liquidity team explain why rising global interest rates and problems in the US banking sector are fuelling demand for money market funds.

Faced with escalating climate and biodiversity crises, developing economies are innovating with new ways to link bond issuance with sustainability goals. This brings risks and opportunities for investors, say Liam Spillane and Emilia Matei.

Despite short-term headwinds, Liam Spillane and Michael McGill argue emerging-market debt continues to offer attractive prospects for long-term investors.

Pierre Ceyrac and Mark Miller explain the benefits of a global approach when investing in high yield.

Healthcare is a dynamic industry, but patent expiries from 2025 and drug-price reform in the US pose challenges. Innovation will be key for continued success, as experts from our credit, equity and ESG teams explain.

Climate change, natural resource scarcity and social shifts are transforming the corporate landscape. Investors need to understand the implications of these sustainability megatrends to manage risks and seize opportunities.

In a world where potential pitfalls loom around every corner, Peter Fitzgerald and Ian Pizer explain why investors need to look beyond what financial models are telling them to keep portfolios resilient to the challenges ahead.

Higher interest rates may be reaching their peak. Steve Ryder and Daniel Bright from our sovereign debt team analyse what this means for the real economy and government bonds globally.

James Vokins and Chris Higham from our investment-grade credit team discuss opportunities and risks in a higher rates world.

Cracks have begun to emerge in the banking sector in recent weeks. As the tide of cheap money that has flooded financial markets for more than a decade ebbs, members of our investment teams are on the lookout for other signs of distress.

With a series of shocks hitting the emerging-market sovereign bond universe in recent years, investors need to be alert to the danger individual countries’ debt is being placed in the wrong risk bucket and mispriced, argues Carmen Altenkirch.

Mark Miller and James Vokins explain how our portfolio construction process for investment-grade credit could benefit investors in the new market regime.