Stranded!

When assets become liabilities

Emerging Market Debt

EMD: The art of differentiation

29 May 2020

Liam Spillane and Aaron Grehan explain why there are still opportunities for investors in emerging market debt, despite expectations of higher defaults and lower recovery rates.

Covid-19

Compare and contrast: COVID-19 and the Global Financial Crisis

28 May 2020

Is there a lesson to be drawn from history? No two crises are the same but useful insights can be gleaned from comparisons, as Jerome Nunan explains.

Covid-19

COVID-19: Is there still a premium for illiquidity?

27 May 2020

One of the immediate consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a marked reduction in investors’ risk appetite. But will their appetite for the illiquidity premium in private markets also disappear? Laurence Monnier explores.

Covid-19

Equities and COVID-19: Now is not the time to double-down on uncertainty

21 May 2020

As the effects of COVID-19 continue to rip through societies and economies, Trevor Green explains why adding uncertainty on top of uncertainty is never a good investment strategy. He outlines three critical, but simple, rules for navigating the current equity market.

Covid-19

COVID 19: The trade-off between staying safe and getting back to work

15 May 2020

An economy in lockdown has significant effects for investors in real assets. In this data illustration, our real assets research team consider the benefit of businesses returning to their usual locations against the risks of doing so.

Covid-19

Will COVID-19 prove a watershed for ESG?

14 May 2020

COVID-19 has thrown new light on the interdependencies in human and natural ecosystems, and the vulnerabilities of a closely networked world. Aviva Investors’ responsible investment specialists ask whether this will prove a turning point for environmental, social and governance issues.

Covid-19

COVID-19: Do past recessions offer lessons for real estate investors?

7 May 2020

Although history offers no magical answers, it can serve as a useful guide in times of extreme uncertainty. Vivienne Bolla and Souad Cherfouh dig into the archives to better understand the effects of recessions on real estate.

The AIQ Podcast

The AIQ Podcast: Climate emergency

6 May 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast goes back to basics on climate: we explore leading scientists’ understanding of how the world is changing, as well as the investment community’s response.

Covid-19

COVID-19: Will credit markets remain open for business?

1 May 2020

While concerns around credit market liquidity have been rising since the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 sell-off has highlighted how fragile liquidity can be during periods of real stress. Colin Purdie discusses the short- and long-term implications for investment grade and high yield credit globally.

Covid-19

COVID-19 and beyond: Three predictions for transport infrastructure

30 Apr 2020

Constant reminders that COVID-19 ‘does not discriminate’ seem in stark contrast to the social and economic consequences playing out in front of us. Some sectors are clearly being hit harder than others – perhaps none more so than transport. Laurence Monnier looks at the long-term implications for the industry and its supporting infrastructure.

Covid-19

COVID-19: The impact on global equities

28 Apr 2020

As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on global economies, Giles Parkinson assesses the impact across equity markets and the longer-term implications for investors.

Covid-19

COVID-19: What will unprecedented policy response mean for economies and markets?

27 Apr 2020

While global policymakers around the world have acted with unprecedented speed and force to the COVID-19 pandemic, their actions are unlikely to prevent the world falling into the deepest recession since World War II.

Covid-19

Size matters: Will COVID-19 lead to a concentration of corporate power?

22 Apr 2020

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

Covid-19

The impact of COVID-19 on global high yield

20 Apr 2020

As an increasing number of companies battle the economic consequences of COVID-19, their ability to service bond payments is coming under intense scrutiny. In this Q&A, Sunita Kara considers whether current high-yield valuations adequately compensate investors for default risk and looks at the broader implications of the pandemic.

Real Assets

'Mastering the real estate cycle'

17 Apr 2020

The cyclicality of real estate creates opportunities for well-informed investors. However, determining where a market is in the cycle can be difficult, so we have developed a tool that can help investors overcome this challenge.

Real Assets

'Mastering the real estate cycle'

17 Apr 2020

The AIQ Podcast: The psychology of climate change

4 Mar 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the psychology of climate change and how to engage individuals in the quest for solutions.

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

28 Feb 2020

More than 40 years since a senior NASA scientist told US Congress of concerns about human activities disrupting the climate, experts are warning of an impending climate catastrophe and the financial sector is wrestling with the implications.

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

28 Feb 2020

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

28 Feb 2020

Psychological barriers can prevent people from acting to avert the climate threat, even when they recognise the problem. So how can we best engage individuals, companies and communities in the quest for solutions?

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

28 Feb 2020

Until recently, many investors made light of dire warnings of the risks posed by assets becoming “stranded” by climate change. However, as the threat becomes reality, fears are mounting that whole industries could be wiped out.

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

28 Feb 2020

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

28 Feb 2020

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

28 Feb 2020

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

An inconvenient transition

28 Feb 2020

Despite deafening calls for countries and companies to step up to fight the climate crisis, research suggests individuals – especially in the developed world – could also make a massive difference if they committed to getting by with less. But will they?

Climate data: Seeing through the fog

28 Feb 2020

Big data is heralded as the answer to almost every problem, so why not the climate crisis?

Nuclear: From pariah to saviour?

28 Feb 2020

As the old saying goes, desperate times call for desperate measures. Despite lingering public anxiety around safety, there are growing calls for the world to look again at nuclear power as part of the solution to the climate crisis.

Biological annihilation: The facts behind the threats to biodiversity and ecosystems

28 Feb 2020

Over 100 billion people have walked the planet, making a gigantic stamp on the Earth. Around three quarters of the land and around two-thirds of the marine environment have been significantly altered by humans, impacting the carbon cycle and changing the prospects for many species.

Dancing to a different tune

6 Jan 2020

Discover how a small Swedish football team used brave, unconventional methods to triumph over their competition. Östersunds FK was languishing near the bottom of the Swedish league system – until the launch of an unorthodox “culture academy” inspired the team to extraordinary success. What can we learn from this remarkable story?

The AIQ Podcast: Link - The power of connected thinking

5 Dec 2019

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the role of connected thinking in technology, business and the environment.

A question of trust: What’s behind blockchain technology

15 Nov 2019

A lot has been said about how blockchain may spark a technological revolution across every corner of the economy – not only in finance, but also areas such as medicine, marketing and supply chain management. What is less clear is how it could pose a hefty social challenge as well.

Supply chain wars

14 Nov 2019

With the US and China locking horns, we take a deeper look at the tangled and complex web of multinational relationships in the global economic ecosystem.

View all AIQ features

Equities

Equities and COVID-19: Now is not the time to double-down on uncertainty

21 May 2020

COVID-19: The impact on global equities

28 Apr 2020

As the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on global economies, Giles Parkinson assesses the impact across equity markets and the longer-term implications for investors.

Size matters: Will COVID-19 lead to a concentration of corporate power?

22 Apr 2020

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

Are investors too complacent about the coronavirus?

21 Feb 2020

In the latest of our editorial series, Link, AIQ brings members of Aviva Investors’ investment strategy, equity and debt teams together to discuss the prospects for financial markets and the world economy in the face of the coronavirus epidemic.

Cwtch: Has capitalism gone cuddly?

18 Feb 2020

In the first of a new editorial series, Link, AIQ brings together people from across Aviva Investors to debate topical themes. Mirza Baig and Stephanie Niven consider whether CEO claims about running businesses for multiple stakeholders rather than shareholders alone is a grand idea or just plain grandstanding.

Multi-asset allocation views: Why the bull run in global equities could continue

12 Feb 2020

Sunil Krishnan discusses the conditions for a continued rise in global equities, the potential of Japanese and US equities to outperform from a regional perspective, and some attractive features of emerging markets – particularly Brazil – which may have been overlooked.

Dealing with climate change: A mixture of mitigation and adaptation

4 Dec 2019

The asset management industry has a key role to play in the face of the climate emergency facing humanity. We spoke to Emma Haziza, hydrologist, PhD Mines ParisTech, Founder and President of Mayane, and Rick Stathers, Climate Specialist at Aviva Investors to find out how asset managers can support companies in their climate transition efforts.

In a complex market, investors need to connect information signals more effectively

19 Nov 2019

A growing body of research suggests equity investors are poor at recognising the connections and interrelationships between companies. A fresh approach is needed, argues Mikhail Zverev, head of global equities at Aviva Investors.

5G: Anatomy of an equity investment idea

11 Nov 2019

The evolution of wireless technology has fuelled a host of new mobile applications and helped propel companies such as Netflix. 5G, its next iteration, promises speeds up to 20 times faster than the current 4G. But to think only in terms of speed severely underestimates 5G’s potential to fundamentally transform the business landscape – though not without tremendous risk.

Back to the future: Dr Eric Topol on AI in healthcare

3 Oct 2019

In the final article in our series on healthcare, we speak to the renowned cardiologist and author Eric Topol about his new book, Deep Medicine.

Substance over style?

30 Sep 2019

Why an agnostic approach beats equity style biases.

Big Tech bets on healthcare

25 Sep 2019

In the third of a four-part series on healthcare, we focus on technology. New tech innovations promise to deliver better treatments and cost efficiencies – but concerns over data protection and flawed AI persist.

Biotech disrupters shake up the drug discovery business

18 Sep 2019

In the second of a four-part series on healthcare, we look at how competition between Big Pharma, Chinese biotech and Silicon Valley is transforming the landscape of drug discovery.

Investors must hold bad bosses to account

16 Sep 2019

Institutional shareholders need to be as agile and active as private equity in dealing with failures of leadership.

Medicine, politics and investing: Tensions abound

12 Sep 2019

In the first of a four-part series on global healthcare, we look at why the sector is likely to take centre stage in the 2020 US elections and what this means for investors.

As China soars, emerging market investors need a rethink

21 Aug 2019

With China set to dominate EM equity indices over the coming decades, investors need to adjust their approach to the asset class, argues Alistair Way.

View all equities

Fixed income

COVID-19: Will credit markets remain open for business?

1 May 2020

The impact of COVID-19 on global high yield

20 Apr 2020

Re-enter the dragon: What China’s recovery from COVID-19 means for emerging markets

7 Apr 2020

As China gradually emerges from lockdown, emerging market debt and equity investors are trying to gauge the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its economy – and the knock-on effects for other emerging markets.

COVID-19 and a brief history of emerging market debt drawdowns

2 Apr 2020

The scale and speed of COVID-19’s impact on global financial markets has caused emerging market debt returns to decline at a pace not seen since the global financial crisis. However, history suggests the recovery of the asset class may also turn out to be quick.

The impact of COVID-19 on private debt

30 Mar 2020

As COVID-19 sweeps across the world, a contraction in global growth is causing an adverse short-term reaction to the economy and financial markets. While the extent of contagion from public markets to private debt remains unclear, transactions with strong downside protection should remain more resilient through the crisis, explains Nikhil Chandra.

Are investors too complacent about the coronavirus?

21 Feb 2020

Broadening global investment-grade horizons

20 Feb 2020

UK investors considering whether to allocate to global investment-grade credit may discover the broader diversification benefits can significantly improve a portfolio’s overall risk dynamics.

Multi-asset allocation views: The pros and cons of higher-yielding fixed income

16 Jan 2020

Sunil Krishnan asks whether higher-yielding fixed income assets remain good diversifiers for multi-asset portfolios in the current environment.

Reform: A route to resilience in emerging markets?

13 Jan 2020

Following a series of IMF meetings in Washington, D.C., Carmen Altenkirch and Dariusz Kedziora discuss their views on how reform prospects may shape emerging market debt.

Climate risk for insurers

12 Dec 2019

Climate risk has become a critical business issue, but a recent consultation by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority highlights confusion on how to assess it.

Global high yield in a sub-zero world

24 Sep 2019

In the strongest signal yet that central bank policies are upending the investment playbook, sub-zero conditions are extending to the high yield market for the first time. Sunita Kara, looks at the implications for investors.

Three steps to improve the green bond market

11 Sep 2019

Green bonds can be a powerful tool for attracting investment in environmental projects, but reforms are needed to promote further growth of the market, argues Colin Purdie.

Lagarde as ECB chief – independent but integrated?

22 Aug 2019

Christine Lagarde has been nominated to head the European Central Bank at a difficult time for monetary policy given growing fears of a recession in the euro zone. Despite much debate on her credentials, Stewart Robertson argues she is the right candidate for the job.

As China soars, emerging market investors need a rethink

21 Aug 2019

With China set to dominate EM equity indices over the coming decades, investors need to adjust their approach to the asset class, argues Alistair Way.

Italy’s threat to the euro has not gone away

30 Jul 2019

The Italian government remains on a collision course with Brussels despite recently striking a deal over its 2019 budget. A mis-step by either side could lead to a fresh euro zone crisis that the new head of the ECB might struggle to contain.

Sovereign interests: ESG matters in emerging market debt

31 May 2019

The emerging market debt universe offers investors an expanding pool of opportunities that may be better assessed when integrating environmental, social and governance factors.

View all fixed income

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

COVID-19: This time is different?

3 Apr 2020

While the COVID-19 pandemic may be unlike anything financial markets have experienced before, the past still offers valuable lessons for investors trying to make sense of the crisis, explains Euan Munro.

COVID-19 and a brief history of emerging market debt drawdowns

2 Apr 2020

COVID-19: When it comes to pandemics, investors should listen to the real experts

1 Apr 2020

In early February, with financial markets oblivious to medical experts’ warnings about the dangers posed by the coronavirus, Ian Pizer of Aviva Investors’ investment strategy team began to look into the medical research to learn more about the potential outcomes and the implications for the global economy and markets. What he discovered raises questions about financial market participants’ ability to react to issues they don’t fully understand.

Multi-asset allocation views: Embedding diversification in portfolios

31 Mar 2020

The impact of COVID-19 and policy measures taken by global authorities to contain it have erased the tentative signs of economic strength seen at the start of 2020. As the epidemic has advanced, the market response has been brutal. Sunil Krishnan reflects on how portfolio managers diversify multi-asset portfolios, and the extent to which these measures have been effective in the current round of volatility.

Treasuries: Defence in troubled times

26 Mar 2020

Correlation patterns between assets have not been behaving conventionally over the last month. Most notably, there have been periods when US Treasury yields have been rising (and their value falling) at the same time as equities have been selling off. Why have investors been abandoning safe-haven assets in the midst of the steepest market falls we have seen for 40 years?

RPI may be flawed, but changes shouldn’t cost pensioners and investors

16 Mar 2020

With the start of the consultation for proposed changes to the measurement of inflation in the UK, we look at the likely impact to asset classes, the assets most affected, and the key issues investors should be aware of.

Are investors too complacent about the coronavirus?

21 Feb 2020

Multi-asset allocation views: Why the bull run in global equities could continue

12 Feb 2020

Multi-asset allocation views: Uncertainty clouds the outlook for European assets

23 Jan 2020

Sunil Krishnan considers whether Europe can break out of its economic malaise and the factors investors should watch out for in 2020.

Multi-asset allocation views: The pros and cons of higher-yielding fixed income

16 Jan 2020

Sunil Krishnan asks whether higher-yielding fixed income assets remain good diversifiers for multi-asset portfolios in the current environment.

Multi-asset allocation views: Could Japan outperform other equity markets?

14 Jan 2020

Sunil Krishnan argues that low expectations among domestic and global investors are reflected in Japanese equity valuations, creating an opportunity for the asset class to play catch-up with the rest of the world.

Supply chain wars

14 Nov 2019

With the US and China locking horns, we take a deeper look at the tangled and complex web of multinational relationships in the global economic ecosystem.

In search of a free lunch

5 Nov 2019

Correlations between groups of assets and within individual asset classes have changed in unexpected ways thanks to a decade of easy monetary policy. Our portfolio managers tell us what impact this has had on the way they manage money.

Mind over matter: How we react to an inverted yield curve is more important than the inversion itself

30 Sep 2019

Determining whether an inverted yield curve signals a US or global recession continues to focus the minds of investors in 2019. Mark Robertson explains why our actions will matter more in determining whether a recession is on the horizon than a misleading indicator.

Lagarde as ECB chief – independent but integrated?

22 Aug 2019

Trade tensions drive seismic shift in monetary policy outlook

9 Aug 2019

The last year has seen a dramatic shift in the outlook for global monetary policy. Although yields have already fallen sharply, US bonds still appear to offer value given the darkening economic storm clouds, argues Peter Fitzgerald.

View all multi-asset & multi-strategy

Real assets

COVID 19: The trade-off between staying safe and getting back to work

15 May 2020

COVID-19: Do past recessions offer lessons for real estate investors?

7 May 2020

COVID-19 and beyond: Three predictions for transport infrastructure

30 Apr 2020

'Mastering the real estate cycle'

17 Apr 2020

'Mastering the real estate cycle'

17 Apr 2020

COVID-19 to test the resilience of long income

16 Apr 2020

Real estate long income strategies are known for their defensive qualities. Tim Perry explores how the impact of COVID-19 on the asset class will vary across businesses and sectors.

The impact of COVID-19 on private debt

30 Mar 2020

COVID-19: The impact on European real estate

30 Mar 2020

As the spread of COVID-19 and government response continue to evolve, we analyse recent developments and how they could affect European real estate.

The impact of COVID-19 on UK infrastructure

26 Mar 2020

As well as its profound human impact, COVID-19 is having a marked effect on asset prices and transaction activity in all areas of financial markets. But beyond the short-term uncertainty, UK infrastructure stakeholders are looking for clues as to how the crisis could influence the market’s longer-term prospects.

The implications of COVID-19 for real assets

19 Mar 2020

The human cost of COVID-19 is likely to rise significantly, along with its impact on economies and financial markets as nations enact measures to contain its spread. We summarise recent developments and what they might mean for European real assets markets.

Intangible infrastructure: Storing and transmitting data

4 Feb 2020

The emergence of data infrastructure was a defining theme in the last decade. As the sector matures, Laurence Monnier explains why further expansion, consolidation and the development of a secondary market are likely.

Three trends to watch in UK long-income real estate

28 Jan 2020

In an era of low interest rates and rising maintenance costs, the benefits of long-income assets within UK real-estate portfolios are hard to ignore. Tim Perry looks at three key trends that are influencing the UK long-income market.

Low rates, northern lights and net zero: UK infrastructure in 2020

21 Jan 2020

In the second of a two-part series, Darryl Murphy assesses the current state of the UK infrastructure market and the likely drivers of transaction activity in 2020.

Recovery, disintermediation and politics: A decade in UK infrastructure

15 Jan 2020

In the first of a two-part series on UK infrastructure, Darryl Murphy looks back on a turbulent decade that saw bank lenders retreat only to re-emerge and a new broom of investors enter the market, as well as the demise of the PFI/PPP model.

Urban regeneration: How a secure income strategy can help revive city centres

6 Jan 2020

Like other major cities, London scores highly across a range of economic metrics. But while London’s continued capacity for renewal and attracting investment is undeniably impressive, it is often in stark contrast to other UK cities. Chris Urwin, Luke Layfield and Stanley Kwong explain what can be done to make those cities more attractive, and the respective roles investors and the public sector should play in that process.

Real estate outlook 2020: Continental Europe

20 Dec 2019

As 2019 comes to a close Vivienne Bolla and Souad Cherfouh look ahead to the key themes that will shape the European real estate markets in 2020 and beyond.

View all real assets

Responsible investment

Will COVID-19 prove a watershed for ESG?

14 May 2020

The AIQ Podcast: Climate emergency

6 May 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast goes back to basics on climate: we explore leading scientists’ understanding of how the world is changing, as well as the investment community’s response.

The AIQ Podcast: The psychology of climate change

4 Mar 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the psychology of climate change and how to engage individuals in the quest for solutions.

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

28 Feb 2020

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

28 Feb 2020

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

28 Feb 2020

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

28 Feb 2020

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

28 Feb 2020

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

28 Feb 2020

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

28 Feb 2020

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

An inconvenient transition

28 Feb 2020

Climate data: Seeing through the fog

28 Feb 2020

Big data is heralded as the answer to almost every problem, so why not the climate crisis?

Nuclear: From pariah to saviour?

28 Feb 2020

How capitalism can help solve the climate crisis

28 Feb 2020

Despite the increasing clamour for a global ‘Green New Deal’, Steve Waygood explains why a complementary International Panel on Climate Finance (IPCF) is also needed if we are to rise to the challenges ahead.

Biological annihilation: The facts behind the threats to biodiversity and ecosystems

28 Feb 2020

Cwtch: Has capitalism gone cuddly?

18 Feb 2020

View all responsible investment thinking

Economic research

Will COVID-19 prove a watershed for ESG?

14 May 2020

The AIQ Podcast: Climate emergency

6 May 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast goes back to basics on climate: we explore leading scientists’ understanding of how the world is changing, as well as the investment community’s response.

COVID-19: What will unprecedented policy response mean for economies and markets?

27 Apr 2020

COVID-19: This time is different?

3 Apr 2020

Black swan or grey rhino: Should investors have seen COVID-19 coming?

27 Mar 2020

The devastating coronavirus outbreak has prompted renewed discussion of “black swans”: rare, unexpected events that wreak havoc on markets and economies. But is COVID-19 really a black swan? And to what extent can investors ensure their portfolios are resilient to sudden shocks of this kind?

The implications of COVID-19 for real assets

19 Mar 2020

RPI may be flawed, but changes shouldn’t cost pensioners and investors

16 Mar 2020

The AIQ Podcast: The psychology of climate change

4 Mar 2020

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the psychology of climate change and how to engage individuals in the quest for solutions.

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

28 Feb 2020

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

28 Feb 2020

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

28 Feb 2020

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

28 Feb 2020

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

28 Feb 2020

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

28 Feb 2020

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

28 Feb 2020

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

An inconvenient transition

28 Feb 2020

View all economic research

House View

A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.

Stranded!

Recent thinking

AIQ Features

Equities

Fixed income

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Real assets

Responsible investment

Economic research

House View

Stranded!

Recent thinking

AIQ Features

Equities

Fixed income

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Real assets

Responsible investment

Economic research

House View

Professional investor

Private investor