Recent thinking
Fixed income
Emerging market debt: A path less volatile
17 Sep 2020
After one of the most volatile periods on record, hard currency emerging market debt is once again drawing investor interest, thanks to attractive yields and its diversification potential. But while markets recovered quickly from the volatility, investors should remain cautious for the challenges ahead.
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Equities
Why limit yourself? The benefits of style-agnostic investing
16 Sep 2020
Investors wanting to consistently exploit market inefficiencies should leave style biases behind, argues Mikhail Zverev.
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Real Assets
Fibre broadband: The need for speed
9 Sep 2020
Lockdown measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the importance of digital connectivity. Tim Perry looks at the investment opportunities and challenges associated with European economies transitioning from copper to faster fibre broadband networks.
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Equities
Out with the old: Why income investors must be on the right side of change
2 Sep 2020
It has been a difficult year for income investing, as many companies have announced cuts or suspensions to dividends. But there are opportunities for investors willing to do some digging to find resilient businesses, says Richard Saldanha.
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The AIQ Podcast
The AIQ Podcast: The source of the next crisis
26 Aug 2020
The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores what we know about complex risks. With what we know now, can we anticipate where the next crisis will emerge?
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Equities
The clockmaker and the longitude problem: A lesson for investors in bottom-up problem solving
25 Aug 2020
Bottom-up thinking is not a typical hallmark of multi-asset investing. However, Francois de Bruin believes the granularity that comes from this approach offers useful diversification and risk benefits.
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Real Assets
Swipe right: The Tinder effect on real estate
24 Aug 2020
It can be hard to perceive how society, and consequently our use of real estate, is changing. Sometimes, major structural trends are hiding in plain sight, says Chris Urwin.
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Multi-asset & multi-strategy
COVID-19: Can a lasting recovery happen without a vaccine?
21 Aug 2020
With the notable exception of China, countries around the world have struggled to get their economies firing on all cylinders without COVID-19 infections flaring up again. Until a way to contain the virus is found, recoveries are likely to remain stop-start and fragile, argue Ian Pizer, Mark Robertson and Sunil Krishnan.
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Real Assets
Five charts that show Manchester is a city of the future
20 Aug 2020
In this short, visual article we present five charts that show why Manchester is such a rich, vibrant and economically prosperous city. Our view is that the ingredients of connectivity, culture, talent, scale and scientific heritage make the city well-equipped to thrive in the coming years and decades.
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Multi-asset & multi-strategy
COVID-19 and antimicrobial resistance: The next health crisis?
19 Aug 2020
As the world grapples with COVID-19, antibiotics used to treat serious secondary bacterial infections associated with the coronavirus are making their way into wastewater with potentially dire consequences. Abigail Herron questions whether investors appreciate the seriousness of what antimicrobial resistance could lead to.
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Equities
The new rules of client engagement
18 Aug 2020
As the coronavirus pandemic reshapes our working lives, asset managers must find new ways to interact with their clients, says Apiramy Jeyarajah.
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Multi-asset & multi-strategy
Multi-asset allocation views: What we can learn from earnings season
14 Aug 2020
Investors have faced several surprises during Q2 earnings season. Sunil Krishnan discusses what the current results round means for multi-asset investors over the coming months.
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Equities
Electric avenue: EVs and the transformation of autos
13 Aug 2020
In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our infrastructure, credit research and equity teams discuss why efforts to ‘build back better’ as economies recover from COVID-19 could further accelerate investment in electric vehicles and associated infrastructure.
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Equities
Chinese equities: A rally of substance?
12 Aug 2020
Chinese equities have risen sharply in recent weeks, mirroring trends in global markets. While some commentators have warned efforts by Beijing to juice share prices are inflating an unsustainable bubble, Alistair Way and Xiaoyu Liu argue valuations are far from excessive.
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The AIQ Podcast
The AIQ Podcast: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
11 Aug 2020
The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores the nature of risk in an uncertain world. How can we stay resilient when the unexpected occurs?
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Equities
As earnings season unfolds, equity investors must focus on the bigger picture
10 Aug 2020
Investors are poring over grim corporate earnings reports, but it is crucial to look beyond quarterly figures to assess long-term value, says Giles Parkinson.
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AIQ: The Risk Edition
COVID-19 has shown how quickly a single event can disrupt a globalised economy. AIQ explores some of the biggest threats facing the world, from cybersecurity to environmental disasters, and considers the investment implications.
AIQ: The Climate Edition
Can the world get back on track towards meeting the commitments of 2015’s Paris Agreement? From science to psychology; from land use to big data; we examine the challenges posed by climate change and assess potential solutions.
The Little Book of Data
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The AIQ Podcast
We sit down with some of the best minds in economics, finance and academia to break down important ideas in investing, challenge conventional thinking, and have a bit of fun. The AIQ Podcast brings you the ideas that matter, the intuition behind the results, and the understanding to apply them.
Macro House View
Our House View represents the best collective judgement of Aviva Investors on the current and future investment environment.
Executive Summary
A summary of our outlook for economies and markets.
Key investment themes and risks
The six key themes and risks which our House View team expect to drive financial markets.
Macro forecasts: charts and commentary
Our round-up of major economies; featuring charts and commentary.
Global market outlook and asset allocation
What our House View means for asset allocation and portfolio construction.
AIQ Features
Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.
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The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator
Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.
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The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner
With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.
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Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters
In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.
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Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?
COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.
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Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution
COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?
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Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?
Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.
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Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?
The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?
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Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters
As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.
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The Economist: John Kay
AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.
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The risks on the savings and retirement journey
COVID-19 has caused significant volatility in financial markets, creating headaches for defined contribution pension schemes seeking to deliver robust outcomes. Overcoming this requires a full map of risks along the savings and retirement journey, argues Francois de Bruin.
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Policy moves into the great unknown, but at what cost?
Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.
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Trial and error: The value of learning from mistakes
A common characteristic of successful people and organisations is an ability to recognise and quickly learn from their mistakes. UK Equity Income Fund Manager Chris Murphy shares the lessons he has learned from an eventful career.
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Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.
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Resilience in credit: All calm for now, but big tests lie in store
For credit investors, resilience is about taking appropriate levels of risk, understanding market dynamics, and identifying companies best prepared for the future. All these qualities could be tested given the wide range of possible outcomes as the world begins to recover from COVID-19.
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Real assets and the quest for resilient income
COVID-19 has made life harder for already yield-starved investors, and each asset class faces its own challenges. We draw on the latest thinking from our Real Assets House View and research team to highlight where reliable income sources can still be found in real asset markets.
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