Latest fixed income thinking

  • The long decline: Why trend economic growth is set to go on falling

    12 Nov 2021

    Trend rates of economic growth, which have been on the decline for decades in the world’s leading economies, look set to fall further. That will have big implications for governments, companies, households and investors, argues Stewart Robertson.

  • COVID, China and the Fed: Diverging EM debt fortunes

    3 Nov 2021

    Relatively low vaccination rates, slowing Chinese growth, and terms of trade gains that may have largely peaked mean emerging market economies face several headwinds in 2022. Varying degrees of resilience and vulnerability are likely to result, argue Nafez Zouk and Carmen Altenkirch.

  • Six themes for emerging markets

    28 Oct 2021

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings are always a chance to reflect on the key trends affecting emerging markets. This year was no different. Carmen Altenkirch and Nafez Zouk engaged with policymakers and delegates to ascertain the real impact of the COVID pandemic on growth, fiscal metrics, and debt burdens.

  • Regulatory shifts in China: A new fork in the road?

    12 Oct 2021

    Investors in China should view recent interventions by the government in the context of its history and longer-term strategic ambitions, argues Amy Kam.

  • The taming of the few

    27 Aug 2021

    Despite accusations Big Tech companies are too powerful, their stranglehold across sectors will be hard to loosen. However, while investors need to keep a watchful eye on developments, Big Tech’s stranglehold on numerous economic sectors will be hard to loosen.

  • What does the data say? Climate change, real yields and live TV

    27 Aug 2021

    In the latest instalment of our visual series on topical data themes, we look at the latest IPCC report, the significant decline in US real yields and people’s live TV versus streaming habits.

  • Are bond investors too complacent about inflation?

    11 Aug 2021

    US Treasury yields have fallen appreciably in recent weeks, seemingly dismissing the threat of rising consumer prices. Some investors could be in for a nasty surprise if inflation proves more intransigent than anticipated, argue Michael Grady and Katarina Cohrs.

  • Food for thought: EMD and the threat of inflation

    16 Jul 2021

    Emerging market debt investors need to keep a watchful eye on food price inflation as a potential key driver of monetary policy, especially as this has not coincided with a weaker US dollar, argues Nafez Zouk.

  • China’s Big Tech crackdown

    5 Jul 2021

    Like Washington and Brussels, Beijing is worried about the growing power of large technology companies. But China’s regulators are taking swifter, more radical action than their peers in the West.

  • The taming of the few

    1 Jul 2021

    Regulatory authorities around the world are targeting the big US tech giants. However, while investors need to keep a watchful eye on developments, Big Tech’s stranglehold and influence on numerous economic sectors will be hard to loosen.

  • Lessons from Archegos: Have investors become complacent about banks?

    14 Jun 2021

    The advent of tougher regulations after the global financial crisis led investors to think banks were safe. Was the Archegos scandal a wake-up call or much ado about nothing?

  • Government deficits still matter, just not right now

    13 May 2021

    Deciding when to tighten the purse strings and hike taxes is complex at any time, and even more so when the economic fallout from COVID-19 remains unclear. Getting deficits – the gap between government spending and income – under control will need to happen eventually, but it would be a brave government that pursued such a goal now.

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