Latest economic research thinking

The ties that bind

28 Feb 2019

Brexit continues to dominate headlines in the UK, but the European Union faces other long-term challenges, from the rise of Euroscepticism in Italy to the stalled progress of euro zone reform.

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Interest rates on hold, but not in reverse

26 Feb 2019

Financial markets have surged since the start of the year after central banks appeared to put monetary policy tightening on hold. Our investment teams give their views on where monetary policy goes next and what that means for asset prices.

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Future of the euro zone: An interview with Ashoka Mody

21 Feb 2019

The received wisdom on the euro zone is that it needs to become more tightly integrated to survive. To ensure the resilience of the monetary union, fiscal transfers to peripheral economies and risk-sharing via the mutual issuance of Eurobonds are necessary and perhaps inevitable. Princeton economist Ashoka Mody takes a different view.

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The future is Asian: An interview with Parag Khanna

20 Feb 2019

How will the rise of emerging Asian economies affect the global balance of market and economic power? AIQ speaks to a leading authority on the subject.

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Can central banks maintain their independence?

14 Feb 2019

Central bank independence is widely regarded as a prerequisite for successful monetary policy. However, with economies having struggled over the past decade and inflation no longer seen as a problem, that view is being contested, argues Stewart Robertson, chief economist at Aviva Investors.

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Rising volatility may boost yen but hit dollar

12 Feb 2019

Greenback’s role as a haven is threatened by US debt load and cyclical shortcomings

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The big interview with David Miliband: The West in retreat

31 Jan 2019

In our Big Interview, David Miliband talks to AIQ about the growing humanitarian emergency in war-torn countries, the retreat from global engagement by the West and the future of centre-left politics.

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Finding flow: four rules for successful collaboration

31 Jan 2019

Good collaboration is key to success in almost every field, from business to finance to sport. We explore how organisations can encourage staff to work together to share ideas, avoid mistakes and improve performance.

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Why a US recession in 2019 is unlikely

8 Jan 2019

Given the apparently close historical relationship between various financial indicators and the economy, some commentators have been quick to talk up the danger of a US recession in view of recent market developments. Such fears appear unfounded, even if growth is likely to slow, argues Michael Grady.

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Can the ‘Tropical Trump’ rescue Brazil?

6 Dec 2018

Markets may have reacted positively to the election of Jair Bolsonaro as president of Brazil, but investors would be advised to temper their optimism given the political challenges he will face when he takes office in the New Year.

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The Italian budget drama

30 Oct 2018

The Italian government’s plans to sharply hike spending leave it on a collision course with the EU. But financial markets, as well as Brussels, will determine whether the populists in Rome can deliver on their electoral pledges.

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Tariffed: who are the losers in Trump’s trade war?

1 Oct 2018

Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports are stoking market volatility, but there are also longer-term implications for economic growth in the US and beyond.

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AIQ Investment Thinking

Get our perspective on key themes influencing investment markets globally.
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House View

A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.

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