Recent thinking
The AIQ Podcast
The AIQ Podcast: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
11 Aug 2020
The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores the nature of risk in an uncertain world. How can we stay resilient when the unexpected occurs?
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Equities
As earnings season unfolds, equity investors must focus on the bigger picture
10 Aug 2020
Investors are poring over grim corporate earnings reports, but it is crucial to look beyond quarterly figures to assess long-term value, says Giles Parkinson.
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Equities
Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott
6 Aug 2020
In part two of our interview with Professor Andrew Scott from London Business School, we look at how policy will shift to take account of people living for longer and how service providers will respond.
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Equities
Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott
6 Aug 2020
Living longer brings enormous opportunities to reshape how we spend our time. But in the first of a two-part interview, Andrew Scott from London Business School explains how advances in longevity and technology have not been matched by innovation in social structures or our approach to financial planning.
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Real Assets
Reality bites: Retailing in a health crisis
5 Aug 2020
In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from Aviva Investors’ credit, equities and real asset teams discuss the consequences of COVID-19 on the retail sector and their implications for investors.
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Insurance
Where can investors put cash to work when rates go negative?
30 Jul 2020
Just when investors thought they couldn’t sink any lower, the economic shock caused by COVID-19 has put further downward pressure on interest rates in developed markets. Caroline Hedges, head of global liquidity portfolio management at Aviva Investors, looks at the impact on money market funds.
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Covid-19
Multi-strategy investing and the COVID crash: Resilience and redemption?
29 Jul 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many things into focus, reminding investors of the shock of a market crash. With bond and equity prices already back at levels that seem to belie the harsh economic reality, Peter Fitzgerald and Mark Robertson believe it could be time to reconsider absolute return multi-strategy investing once more.
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AIQ Feature
Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
21 Jul 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.
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AIQ Feature
The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator
21 Jul 2020
Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.
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AIQ Feature
The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner
21 Jul 2020
With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.
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AIQ Feature
Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters
21 Jul 2020
In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.
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AIQ Feature
Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.
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AIQ Feature
Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?
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AIQ Feature
Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?
21 Jul 2020
Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.
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AIQ Feature
Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?
21 Jul 2020
The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?
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AIQ Feature
Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters
21 Jul 2020
As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.
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The Little Book of Data
Visual vignettes to help us better understand the world and provoke thought, sign up to receive our hard copy coffee table book of data visualisations, The Little Book of Data.
AIQ Features
Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
21 Jul 2020
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.
Read more
The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator
21 Jul 2020
Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.
Read more
The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner
21 Jul 2020
With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.
Read more
Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters
21 Jul 2020
In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.
Read more
Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.
Read more
Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?
Read more
Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?
21 Jul 2020
Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.
Read more
Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?
21 Jul 2020
The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?
Read more
Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters
21 Jul 2020
As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.
Read more
The Economist: John Kay
21 Jul 2020
AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.
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The risks on the savings and retirement journey
21 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has caused significant volatility in financial markets, creating headaches for defined contribution pension schemes seeking to deliver robust outcomes. Overcoming this requires a full map of risks along the savings and retirement journey, argues Francois de Bruin.
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Policy moves into the great unknown, but at what cost?
21 Jul 2020
Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.
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Trial and error: The value of learning from mistakes
21 Jul 2020
A common characteristic of successful people and organisations is an ability to recognise and quickly learn from their mistakes. UK Equity Income Fund Manager Chris Murphy shares the lessons he has learned from an eventful career.
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Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power
21 Jul 2020
The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.
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Resilience in credit: All calm for now, but big tests lie in store
17 Jul 2020
For credit investors, resilience is about taking appropriate levels of risk, understanding market dynamics, and identifying companies best prepared for the future. All these qualities could be tested given the wide range of possible outcomes as the world begins to recover from COVID-19.
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Real assets and the quest for resilient income
6 Jul 2020
COVID-19 has made life harder for already yield-starved investors, and each asset class faces its own challenges. We draw on the latest thinking from our Real Assets House View and research team to highlight where reliable income sources can still be found in real asset markets.
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AIQ Client Matters
The AIQ Podcast: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
11 Aug 2020
The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores the nature of risk in an uncertain world. How can we stay resilient when the unexpected occurs?
Read more
Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott
6 Aug 2020
In part two of our interview with Professor Andrew Scott from London Business School, we look at how policy will shift to take account of people living for longer and how service providers will respond.
Read more
Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott
6 Aug 2020
Living longer brings enormous opportunities to reshape how we spend our time. But in the first of a two-part interview, Andrew Scott from London Business School explains how advances in longevity and technology have not been matched by innovation in social structures or our approach to financial planning.
Read more
Where can investors put cash to work when rates go negative?
30 Jul 2020
Just when investors thought they couldn’t sink any lower, the economic shock caused by COVID-19 has put further downward pressure on interest rates in developed markets. Caroline Hedges, head of global liquidity portfolio management at Aviva Investors, looks at the impact on money market funds.
Read more
Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view
23 Jun 2020
In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.
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COVID-19: Will credit markets remain open for business?
1 May 2020
While concerns around credit market liquidity have been rising since the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 sell-off has highlighted how fragile liquidity can be during periods of real stress. Colin Purdie discusses the short- and long-term implications for investment grade and high yield credit globally.
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RPI may be flawed, but changes shouldn’t cost pensioners and investors
16 Mar 2020
With the start of the consultation for proposed changes to the measurement of inflation in the UK, we look at the likely impact to asset classes, the assets most affected, and the key issues investors should be aware of.
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Climate risk for insurers
12 Dec 2019
Climate risk has become a critical business issue, but a recent consultation by the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority highlights confusion on how to assess it.
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Five charts that will make you think differently about retirement
23 Aug 2019
Retiring at 60 is a relatively new concept, and possibly a short-lived one in our history. As populations age – and age better – people are looking at a host of ways to stay in work and sustain their retirement income. We present five charts that sum up the changing landscape.
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Self-sufficiency for pension schemes: Keep on running?
28 May 2019
Boris Mikhailov and Matthew Graham look at the benefits and risks for pension schemes targeting self-sufficiency.
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The future of insurance
17 May 2019
The insurance industry has evolved rapidly since the financial crisis. The next decade is shaping up to be every bit as transformative as firms grapple with a host of factors, most notably the unfolding regulatory framework, digital disruption and climate change.
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The future of retirement
28 Feb 2019
The idea that in one’s sixties it might be time to step out of work and retire into a life of leisure is relatively recent. But with more people living longer, expectations of retirement are being reshaped.
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Conference calls: a snapshot of investors’ views on the big issues
23 Oct 2018
Attendees at Aviva Investors’ annual institutional investor conference gave their take on some of the key themes impacting pensions schemes, from ESG to asset allocation shifts.
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Balancing liquidity and flexibility: a DB de-risking dilemma
13 Sep 2018
As transfers out of UK Defined Benefit (DB) pension schemes reach record levels, John Dewey assesses the implications for pension schemes with alternative income allocations.
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The AIQ Podcast: Who wants to live forever?
11 Jun 2018
This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast, we look at the implications of increasing life expectancy for individuals, companies and policymakers. Specifically, we’ll look at what this means for the advisory, pensions and insurance industries.
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House View
A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.
Executive Summary
A summary of our outlook for economies and markets.
Key investment themes and risks
The six key themes and risks which our House View team expect to drive financial markets.
Macro forecasts: charts and commentary
Our round-up of major economies; featuring charts and commentary.
Global market outlook and asset allocation
What our House View means for asset allocation and portfolio construction.
Webcast
Keep up-to-date with our latest thoughts on financial markets by joining our interactive sessions.
Macro House View Q2 2020: COVID-19 and the economy – can the engine restart?
Join us for a quick discussion with Stewart Robertson, Senior Economist, and Jerome Nunan, Investment Director, Multi-Asset, as they discuss how COVID-19 and the containment measures implemented by governments around the world to deal with it have impacted our latest House View.