The biggest threats facing the world, from cybersecurity to climate change, and considers the investment implications.

  • Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty

    The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.

  • Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters

    In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.

  • The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator

    Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.

  • Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?

    Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.

  • Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution

    COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?

  • Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters

    As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.

  • Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?

    COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.

  • Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?

    The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?

  • Policy moves into the great unknown, but at what cost?

    Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.

  • Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power

    The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

  • Five charts on investment resilience

    In troubled times, the benefits of portfolio diversification can be boosted by taking a fresh look at the drivers of resilience, as the following five charts illustrate.

AIQ talks to experts in a variety of fields to better understand these risks

  • The Decision Maker: Annie Duke

    Annie Duke is a World Series of Poker champion, speaker and consultant on decision making, and author of the upcoming book How To Decide. She discusses how biases influence our decisions, and the importance of diverse perspectives.

  • The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner

    With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.

  • The Economist: John Kay

    AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.

  • The Scientist: Didier Sornette

    AIQ speaks to the world-renowned risk expert Didier Sornette about the coronavirus pandemic and how organisations can stay resilient in the face of unexpected crises.

  • The Globalisation Expert: Ian Goldin

    Globalisation is a double-edged sword. Ian Goldin, professor of globalisation and development at the University of Oxford and author of The Butterfly Defect, discusses the systemic risks that have built up as an array of interconnections have spread their wings of influence across the globe.

  • The Entrepreneur: Margaret Heffernan

    Margaret Heffernan is an academic, entrepreneur and author. Her latest book, Uncharted: How to Map the Future Together, explores how organisations and individuals can find their bearings in an unpredictable world.

  • The Disaster Risk Expert: Robert Glasser

    Dr Robert Glasser was formerly the United Nations Secretary General’s special representative for disaster risk reduction and head of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. He is currently a visiting fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. He explains how the rising number and intensity of natural hazards is creating an “era of disasters” and discusses mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  • The Superforecaster: Warren Hatch

    Warren Hatch is CEO of Good Judgment Inc, a global network of superforecasters to help companies address complex problems, developed following research by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers. Hatch explains what makes a superforecaster different and the importance of teamwork to deliver more robust outcomes.

  • The Risk Engineer: Warren Black

    Warren Black is a qualified engineer, risk professional and complex systems theorist. He established Complexus in 2016 to research how risks need to be controlled within complex organisations, projects and programmes. AIQ asks him whether current risk management practices are adequate in a world transitioning into the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

  • The Probability Specialist: Sam Savage

    Professor Sam L. Savage of Stanford University, author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, helped pioneer the field of probability management while working with Royal Dutch Shell. He discusses how we can use scenario planning and probabilistic modelling to help us deal with complex risks.

Our team

Since launching in 2016, the team behind AIQ have been driven by a common goal: to give our clients and other interested parties fresh insight into the biggest themes affecting financial markets and the global economy.

Recognising we don’t have all the answers, AIQ brings together the best independent experts and Aviva Investors’ investment professionals to offer a more rounded picture on the stories that matter.

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