Recent thinking

Multi-asset & multi-strategy
Divergence, debt sustainability and climate: Key takeaways from the IMF Spring meetings
14 Apr 2021
Debate over the short- and longer-term consequences of COVID-19 dominated the Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund, with our emerging-market debt team among those following discussions closely.
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Real Assets
Concentrate! How to benefit from specialisation and diversification in real estate
14 Apr 2021
Too much emphasis on geographic and sector diversification within real estate portfolios can hinder alpha generation. More focus on lease length, asset quality and other factors is a preferred means of reducing specific risks whilst allowing specialisation, argues Tim Perry.
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Responsible Investing
Joana Setzer Q&A: On the climate litigation front line
9 Apr 2021
Joana Setzer from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at LSE discusses the implications on governments and companies of the growing wave of climate litigation.
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Responsible Investing
Law and climate disorder: Understanding physical, transition and litigation risk
9 Apr 2021
Major listed companies are finding themselves the target of legal action designed to make them move faster towards a lower carbon world. These cases could mark an inflection point; when the conversation turns toward specific responsibilities to move away from fossil fuels rather than broad commitments to change.
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Responsible Investing
Living in the past: Why are controversy scores so controversial?
8 Apr 2021
Many investors use controversy scores as a filter to avoid firms whose damaging behaviour has hit the headlines, from human rights violations to environmental disasters. But these scores have serious limitations, making them an inadequate tool for investors who want to manage ESG risks and have a positive impact.
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Real Assets
Five charts that show Copenhagen is a city of the future
7 Apr 2021
We take a visual approach to highlight why Copenhagen is such a rich, vibrant and economically prosperous city.
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Equities
What does the data say? Vaccines, illiquidity and managers called Dave
26 Mar 2021
In the first of a new monthly series, we take a visual approach to illustrate topical data themes in economies, markets and beyond. This month we look at the correlation between stock market performance and vaccinations, the illiquidity premium in real assets, and whether there are still more men called Dave running funds than female managers.
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Responsible Investing
Lean on me: How can bond investors influence government climate action?
25 Mar 2021
The coronavirus epidemic has further accelerated the rise of ESG into the investment mainstream. As deficits skyrocket, bond investors have an opportunity to engage with governments on climate change, argues Thomas Dillon.
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Fixed income
Deficits still matter… just not right now
22 Mar 2021
Deciding when to tighten the purse strings and hike taxes is complex at any time, even more so when the economic fallout from COVID-19 remains unclear. Getting deficits under control will need to happen eventually, but it would be a brave government to pursue that goal in the short term.
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Equities
Why it is getting harder to assess value in financial markets
19 Mar 2021
Massive intervention by central banks and governments in recent years has left investors struggling to value financial assets.
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Equities
Levelling up: How COVID-19 is accelerating a digital revolution in construction and manufacturing
18 Mar 2021
The coronavirus pandemic has spurred companies to upgrade their digital capabilities, boosting productivity and creating investment opportunities in previously overlooked niches.
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Responsible Investing
Building a better world after COVID-19
18 Mar 2021
There is a growing consensus among companies, governments and electorates across the globe that the world after the pandemic should be greener. But how should we go about this?
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Real Assets
Podcast: A clear green premium
18 Mar 2021
Our Head of ESG, Ed Dixon, recently joined Blackstock Consulting on a PropCast episode to launch their new series of ESG insights with industry leaders. Together, they discussed how the government needs to be partnering with businesses to reach their climate pledges, how the “green premium” is yielding higher rents for eco-friendly offices, and much more.
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Equities
Cut it out! The complex quest to decarbonise heating
16 Mar 2021
More countries are contemplating their visions for a lower carbon world. Norway has excluded fossil fuels entirely for heating buildings, while others are taking a more nuanced approach. So, what are the options for those with environment at the heart of their agenda?
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Responsible Investing
Is ‘purpose’ the new green? Pandemic exposes leaders and laggards in stakeholder capitalism
11 Mar 2021
In 2019, some of the world’s biggest companies pledged to look beyond short-term shareholder value and protect the interests of all stakeholders. The coronavirus pandemic has put these commitments to the test, says Mirza Baig.
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Responsible Investing
Outlook for auto giants unclear in an EV-driven future
10 Mar 2021
Investors are betting the likes of Tesla will win the race for sales of electric vehicles, but traditional carmakers and technology giants may have a say in who passes the chequered flag first.
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AIQ: The Now Normal
It has taken a global pandemic to make us see the value of living in the present, but it is just one example of seismic changes taking place that we must live with and adapt to, as we explore in AIQ: The Now Normal.

AIQ: The Risk Edition
COVID-19 has shown how quickly a single event can disrupt a globalised economy. AIQ explores some of the biggest threats facing the world, from cybersecurity to environmental disasters, and considers the investment implications.

The Little Book of Data
A curated collection of the infographics shaping our views on markets and economics. Limited availability, so reserve your copy of The Little Book of Data now.

The AIQ Podcast
We sit down with some of the best minds in economics, finance and academia to break down important ideas in investing, challenge conventional thinking, and have a bit of fun. The AIQ Podcast brings you the ideas that matter, the intuition behind the results, and the understanding to apply them.

Macro House View
Our House View represents the best collective judgement of Aviva Investors on the current and future investment environment.
AIQ features

The COVID Nudge
In these data visualisations, we look at whether COVID-19 will achieve something that millions spent on public health campaigning has failed to do.
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A time for action: Race, ethnicity and investing
In a two-part feature, we look at what asset managers need to focus their engagement efforts on to make a difference on anti-black racism, and why the industry needs to get its own house in order.
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Virtual reality: How COVID-19 is reshaping the world of work
While the coronavirus pandemic has devastated livelihoods, it also presents an opportunity for companies and policymakers to reinvent the world of work. The future is full of possibilities – but no easy answers.
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Cutting loose: COVID-19 deals globalisation a further blow
Globalisation’s image problem may have been further tarnished by the pandemic, but can political leaders use the crisis to reform it for the better and resist the urge to abandon it altogether?
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United Europe: From discord to harmony?
Global politics are in flux as policymakers scramble to manage the pandemic and revive economies. Can Europe come together and carve a place for itself on the international stage, or will it end up a passive player buffeted by greater forces?
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The great digital detox
From Russian hackers interfering in foreign elections to high-profile corporate breaches, people are waking up to some harsh realities around data. We look at what the European call for a ‘Magna Carta’ for data has led to, and explore the investment implications of the growing scrutiny over data privacy.
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The next frontier
Despite a torrid few months, frontier bond markets still have an important role to play in investors' portfolios.
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Empire states of mind: Is the age of US exceptionalism at an end?
As the world starts to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, the US’s position as global hegemon will be under mortal threat from a resurgent China that looks to have escaped the virus relatively unscathed.
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What a carve up! The future of the internet
Commercial and geopolitical forces are threatening to fracture the internet into competing regimes, making it harder for companies to operate across borders and potentially limiting their growth. We explore the implications for investors.
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Building back better: The path to net zero
While much of the world’s focus continues to be on tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis also requires urgent attention. The number of countries and companies supporting the move to a lower-carbon world is growing, but practical challenges remain. How can we build back better after COVID, and navigate to a cleaner, safer and sustainable world?
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How the US can lead on climate finance: A five-point plan for President Biden’s first year
The US went backwards on tackling climate change under President Trump. His successor Joe Biden must act quickly to make up for lost time, says Steve Waygood.
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Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.
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The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator
Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.
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The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner
With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.
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Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters
In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.
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Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?
COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.
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AIQ client matters

Living in the past: Why are controversy scores so controversial?
Many investors use controversy scores as a filter to avoid firms whose damaging behaviour has hit the headlines, from human rights violations to environmental disasters. But these scores have serious limitations, making them an inadequate tool for investors who want to manage ESG risks and have a positive impact.
Read more

Zero rates: Too much of a good thing?
The inexorable rise in asset prices caused by the seemingly never-ending era of monetary easing is calling into question long-held investment beliefs, as members of our multi-asset & macro and equities teams explain.
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Everybody wants one: Are sustainable bonds the new smartphones?
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance and fragility of the natural balance. As governments, companies and investors aim for a just transition, sustainable bonds are being issued at pace in different formats. Is it a fad, and do markets really need so many varieties?
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How Manchester transformed into a city of the future
Once an industrial powerhouse, Manchester reversed its decline to become one of Europe's top creative capitals. Watch our video to find out why we call it a city of the future.
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Multi-asset allocation views: Room to grow
The early part of a year gives investors an opportunity to take stock. Sunil Krishnan reflects on how the current environment is shaping our views for multi-asset portfolios.
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A time for action: Race, ethnicity and investing
In a two-part feature, we look at what asset managers need to focus their engagement efforts on to make a difference on anti-black racism, and why the industry needs to get its own house in order.
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The path for oil and gas after COVID-19
Post-COVID recovery initiatives from governments are increasingly taking a green path, but the response of oil and gas companies so far runs from denial to complete reinvention. Should they continue pumping oil for as long as they can to avoid destroying capital for investors, or do they need to accelerate efforts to future proof their businesses now?
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COVID, climate and Black Lives Matter: The stories that defined 2020
We select some of our key pieces of content in a year of unending drama.
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Income investing: The return of Goldilocks and the three bears
The Goldilocks environment is back, but bears are lurking in the shadows. Francois de Bruin explores the risks and opportunities that need to be managed to get outcomes that are “just right”.
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Race, ethnicity and investing: Practice what you preach
In the second article in our series on racism, we explain why asset managers need to get their own house in order to be a credible agent for change at the companies they invest in.
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Race, ethnicity and investing: A time for action
In the first of a two-part series on anti-black racism, we look at five areas asset managers need to focus on if their engagement efforts are to make a positive difference.
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Prime time: How streaming is reshaping film and TV
The last ten years have seen the film and television industry transform beyond recognition. In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our credit and equity teams discuss whether streaming will continue its inexorable reshaping of the media landscape.
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Home and leisure in a pandemic: Girls (and boys) still want to have fun
From cinemas to cruises, the consumer-driven home and leisure sector was hit hard by lockdown restrictions. With economies reopening in a disjointed manner, some sub-sectors have rebounded quickly while others continue to struggle. Here, we look at how the pandemic is reshaping the industry and the implications for investors.
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When equity becomes debt: The untapped potential of amortising-lease real estate
Pension schemes seeking alternatives to bonds may find amortising leases a compelling option, writes Luke Layfield.
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Five charts that show Manchester is a city of the future
In this short, visual article we present five charts that show why Manchester is such a rich, vibrant and economically prosperous city. Our view is that the ingredients of connectivity, culture, talent, scale and scientific heritage make the city well-equipped to thrive in the coming years and decades.
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The AIQ Podcast: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty
The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores the nature of risk in an uncertain world. How can we stay resilient when the unexpected occurs?
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