As geopolitics reshapes markets, rare earths are moving into the spotlight – and Greenland is emerging as a strategic focal point.
2026 has begun with geopolitics firmly back in the driver’s seat – and few places have attracted global attention quite like Greenland. Long regarded as remote and strategically peripheral, the Arctic island has re‑emerged as a focal point in global resource competition.
In this month’s chart, we compare rare earth reserves with current production across major global regions (see Figure 1). The contrast helps explain Greenland’s growing strategic importance, at a time when access to critical raw materials has become a defining geopolitical and economic issue.
Figure 1: Greenland’s rare earths (tonnes)
Source: Aviva Investors, U.S. Department of the Interior. Data as of January 2025.1
Vast resource potential
Despite having just two operating mines, Greenland is estimated to contain 25 of the EU’s 34 critical raw materials. In addition, its proven oil reserves are thought to rival those of the entire United States, although new hydrocarbon licensing was suspended in 2021 amid environmental concerns.2
This gap between resource potential and actual production is striking, and central to Greenland’s appeal.
Electrification is driving demand for rare earths
The global economy is undergoing a structural shift away from fossil fuels towards electric power, driven by decarbonisation goals, energy security concerns and industrial policy. Rare earth elements (particularly neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium) are essential to this transition.
These materials are a key input for high‑performance permanent magnets, which are used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines and energy‑efficient industrial machinery.3
As electrification accelerates, demand for rare earths is expected to grow faster than supply, increasing their strategic and economic value.
Critical inputs for next‑generation technologies
Beyond clean energy, rare earths are increasingly seen as indispensable building blocks for the technologies shaping the future – from AI data centres and advanced semiconductors to defence systems and aerospace applications.
This combination of economic and national‑security importance has fuelled growing policy focus and investor interest. While large‑scale commercial extraction in Greenland remains technically complex and a longer‑term prospect, its resource base positions the island as a potential strategic supplier in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
For investors, the message is clear: as critical materials move up the geopolitical agenda, the uneven distribution of reserves versus production is likely to remain a source of volatility – and opportunity – for years to come.
