Latest fixed income thinking

The cost of climate change: A big threat to sovereign debt?

3 Dec 2021

Governments around the world are struggling to avert a climate catastrophe. Regardless of whether they succeed, climate change threatens adverse consequences for government bonds, although market impacts are likely to vary.

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Credit: The long and short of ESG investing

25 Nov 2021

Credit is an asymmetric asset class. The upside is a coupon payment and limited capital appreciation; the downside is a default to zero. For all maturities and bond types, ESG integration can play a crucial role in mitigating risk.

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The long decline: Why trend economic growth is set to go on falling

12 Nov 2021

Trend rates of economic growth, which have been on the decline for decades in the world’s leading economies, look set to fall further. That will have big implications for governments, companies, households and investors, argues Stewart Robertson.

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COVID, China and the Fed: Diverging EM debt fortunes

3 Nov 2021

Relatively low vaccination rates, slowing Chinese growth, and terms of trade gains that may have largely peaked mean emerging market economies face several headwinds in 2022. Varying degrees of resilience and vulnerability are likely to result, argue Nafez Zouk and Carmen Altenkirch.

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Six themes for emerging markets

28 Oct 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings are always a chance to reflect on the key trends affecting emerging markets. This year was no different. Carmen Altenkirch and Nafez Zouk engaged with policymakers and delegates to ascertain the real impact of the COVID pandemic on growth, fiscal metrics, and debt burdens.

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Regulatory shifts in China: A new fork in the road?

12 Oct 2021

Investors in China should view recent interventions by the government in the context of its history and longer-term strategic ambitions, argues Amy Kam.

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The taming of the few

27 Aug 2021

Despite accusations Big Tech companies are too powerful, their stranglehold across sectors will be hard to loosen. However, while investors need to keep a watchful eye on developments, Big Tech’s stranglehold on numerous economic sectors will be hard to loosen.

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What does the data say? Climate change, real yields and live TV

27 Aug 2021

In the latest instalment of our visual series on topical data themes, we look at the latest IPCC report, the significant decline in US real yields and people’s live TV versus streaming habits.

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Are bond investors too complacent about inflation?

11 Aug 2021

US Treasury yields have fallen appreciably in recent weeks, seemingly dismissing the threat of rising consumer prices. Some investors could be in for a nasty surprise if inflation proves more intransigent than anticipated, argue Michael Grady and Katarina Cohrs.

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Food for thought: EMD and the threat of inflation

16 Jul 2021

Emerging market debt investors need to keep a watchful eye on food price inflation as a potential key driver of monetary policy, especially as this has not coincided with a weaker US dollar, argues Nafez Zouk.

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China’s Big Tech crackdown

5 Jul 2021

Like Washington and Brussels, Beijing is worried about the growing power of large technology companies. But China’s regulators are taking swifter, more radical action than their peers in the West.

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The taming of the few

1 Jul 2021

Regulatory authorities around the world are targeting the big US tech giants. However, while investors need to keep a watchful eye on developments, Big Tech’s stranglehold and influence on numerous economic sectors will be hard to loosen.

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AIQ Investment Thinking

Get our perspective on key themes influencing investment markets globally.
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House View

A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.

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