Have traditional safe havens lost their edge?

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.

Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.

With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.

In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.

COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.

COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?

Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.

The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?

As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.

AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.

COVID-19 has caused significant volatility in financial markets, creating headaches for defined contribution pension schemes seeking to deliver robust outcomes. Overcoming this requires a full map of risks along the savings and retirement journey, argues Francois de Bruin.

Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.

A common characteristic of successful people and organisations is an ability to recognise and quickly learn from their mistakes. UK Equity Income Fund Manager Chris Murphy shares the lessons he has learned from an eventful career.

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

For credit investors, resilience is about taking appropriate levels of risk, understanding market dynamics, and identifying companies best prepared for the future. All these qualities could be tested given the wide range of possible outcomes as the world begins to recover from COVID-19.

COVID-19 has reminded investors of the importance of defensive positions within portfolios during times of stress. But are the ‘safe havens’ of the past still up to the task?

Commercial and geopolitical forces are threatening to fracture the internet into competing regimes, making it harder for companies to operate across borders and potentially limiting their growth. We explore the implications for investors.

Impact investment strategies will have an important role to play if the green credentials of the world’s stock of real estate is to be transformed, argue Gregor Bamert and Stanley Kwong.

Post-COVID recovery initiatives from governments are increasingly taking a green path, but the response of oil and gas companies so far runs from denial to complete reinvention. Should they continue pumping oil for as long as they can to avoid destroying capital for investors, or do they need to accelerate efforts to future proof their businesses now?

As part of our engagement efforts, every January we send a letter to the chairs of companies we invest in (and some we don’t, but still want to use our influence with) to set out our stewardship priorities for the year. Here, in full, is our 2021 letter.

Shawn Mato, convertible bond fund manager, picks three themes that could have a big say in how the asset class performs in 2021.

Kevin Mathews, Brent Finck and Sunita Kara, high yield portfolio managers at Aviva Investors, pick out three themes that will shape the asset class in 2021.

Mike Cho and Jonathan Manning, investment-grade portfolio managers at Aviva Investors, look at the themes that will shape the asset class in 2021.

After decades of secrecy, light is increasingly being shone on the potentially hazardous compounds produced by chemical companies. In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from Aviva Investors’ credit, equities and ESG teams discuss the prevalence of chemicals in modern life, and how to balance usefulness and safety.

ESG ratings are a helpful baseline to assess companies, but views on their ESG risks and opportunities can be honed – and sometimes corrected – through deeper research, trend analysis and meetings with company executives.

As the US presidential election looms, we explore potential scenarios – from a Democratic “blue sweep” to a Trump re-election to a divided government – and assess the implications for investors.

Zombie companies are the talk of the town. Will they limp on forever, storing up potential trouble for investors’ portfolios, or can they revive and thrive after the COVID crisis?

From cinemas to cruises, the consumer-driven home and leisure sector was hit hard by lockdown restrictions. With economies reopening in a disjointed manner, some sub-sectors have rebounded quickly while others continue to struggle. Here, we look at how the pandemic is reshaping the industry and the implications for investors.

Bond markets have taken the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy framework in their stride, partly because interest rates are now expected to stay lower for even longer. But they look vulnerable if the Fed can revive inflation.

After one of the most volatile periods on record, hard currency emerging market debt is once again drawing investor interest, thanks to attractive yields and its diversification potential. But while markets recovered quickly from the volatility, investors should remain cautious for the challenges ahead.

As the coronavirus pandemic reshapes our working lives, asset managers must find new ways to interact with their clients, says Apiramy Jeyarajah.

In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our infrastructure, credit research and equity teams discuss why efforts to ‘build back better’ as economies recover from COVID-19 could further accelerate investment in electric vehicles and associated infrastructure.

While the coronavirus pandemic has devastated livelihoods, it also presents an opportunity for companies and policymakers to reinvent the world of work. The future is full of possibilities – but no easy answers.

Impact investment strategies will have an important role to play if the green credentials of the world’s stock of real estate is to be transformed, argue Gregor Bamert and Stanley Kwong.

While much of the world’s focus continues to be on tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, the climate crisis also requires urgent attention. The number of countries and companies supporting the move to a lower-carbon world is growing, but practical challenges remain. How can we build back better after COVID, and navigate to a cleaner, safer and sustainable world?

As part of our engagement efforts, every January we send a letter to the chairs of companies we invest in (and some we don’t, but still want to use our influence with) to set out our stewardship priorities for the year. Here, in full, is our 2021 letter.

The UK is the latest country to accelerate plans to develop hydrogen as part of its push to reach net zero. But it is not the first time hydrogen has attracted attention – it has been trumpeted by the scientific community as a possible wonder fuel for around a century. So, what’s changed now?

Darryl Murphy assesses the current state of the UK infrastructure market and the likely drivers of activity in 2021.

Souad Cherfouh, head of real estate investment strategy, and Jonathan Bayfield, head of UK and Irish real estate research, look at three themes that could characterise the real estate market in 2021 and beyond.

We select some of our key pieces of content on real asset markets in a dramatic year.

We select some of our key pieces of content in a year of unending drama.

There is a large gulf between the concept of ‘net zero’ and the practical policies that will deliver it. Jill Rutter, senior fellow at the Institute for Government, takes a hard look at the UK’s progress towards the 2050 target.

There is no lack of willingness among investors in real assets to play their part in helping countries reach net zero by 2050. But much needs to change – and quickly, as Laurence Monnier explains.

While the COVID-19 lockdown has highlighted the possibilities of home working, bringing people together in offices is still the best way to spur innovation and productivity, says Jonathan Bayfield.

The near-term disruption caused by the coronavirus has been testing for real estate borrowers seeking finance and originators. Gregor Bamert explains why new deals are still possible for those able to look through short-term uncertainty.

Pension schemes seeking alternatives to bonds may find amortising leases a compelling option, writes Luke Layfield.

Recent events have highlighted the importance of the environmental, social and governance characteristics of real asset investments – not only as part of COVID-19 recovery programmes, but also as a way of futureproofing portfolios.

Lockdown measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the importance of digital connectivity. Tim Perry looks at the investment opportunities and challenges associated with European economies transitioning from copper to faster fibre broadband networks.

Globalisation’s image problem may have been further tarnished by the pandemic, but can political leaders use the crisis to reform it for the better and resist the urge to abandon it altogether?

Global politics are in flux as policymakers scramble to manage the pandemic and revive economies. Can Europe come together and carve a place for itself on the international stage, or will it end up a passive player buffeted by greater forces?

As the world starts to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, the US’s position as global hegemon will be under mortal threat from a resurgent China that looks to have escaped the virus relatively unscathed.

The UK is the latest country to accelerate plans to develop hydrogen as part of its push to reach net zero. But it is not the first time hydrogen has attracted attention – it has been trumpeted by the scientific community as a possible wonder fuel for around a century. So, what’s changed now?

The US went backwards on tackling climate change under President Trump. His successor Joe Biden must act quickly to make up for lost time, says Steve Waygood.

We select some of our key pieces of content in a year of unending drama.

There is a large gulf between the concept of ‘net zero’ and the practical policies that will deliver it. Jill Rutter, senior fellow at the Institute for Government, takes a hard look at the UK’s progress towards the 2050 target.

As the US presidential election looms, we explore potential scenarios – from a Democratic “blue sweep” to a Trump re-election to a divided government – and assess the implications for investors.

In the second article in our series on racism, we explain why asset managers need to get their own house in order to be a credible agent for change at the companies they invest in.

In the first of a two-part series on anti-black racism, we look at five areas asset managers need to focus on if their engagement efforts are to make a positive difference.

The last ten years have seen the film and television industry transform beyond recognition. In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our credit and equity teams discuss whether streaming will continue its inexorable reshaping of the media landscape.

Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has replaced Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest serving prime minister. As he faces the twin challenges of leading the country out of a pandemic and pushing through much-needed structural reforms, what can investors expect from the new administration?

Bond markets have taken the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy framework in their stride, partly because interest rates are now expected to stay lower for even longer. But they look vulnerable if the Fed can revive inflation.

The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores what we know about complex risks. With what we know now, can we anticipate where the next crisis will emerge?

With the notable exception of China, countries around the world have struggled to get their economies firing on all cylinders without COVID-19 infections flaring up again. Until a way to contain the virus is found, recoveries are likely to remain stop-start and fragile, argue Ian Pizer, Mark Robertson and Sunil Krishnan.

As the world grapples with COVID-19, antibiotics used to treat serious secondary bacterial infections associated with the coronavirus are making their way into wastewater with potentially dire consequences. Abigail Herron questions whether investors appreciate the seriousness of what antimicrobial resistance could lead to.