AIQ: Investment Thinking

Recent thinking

Insurance

Prime time: How streaming is reshaping film and TV

22 Oct 2020

The last ten years have seen the film and television industry transform beyond recognition. In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our credit and equity teams discuss whether streaming will continue its inexorable reshaping of the media landscape.

Equities

Turn and face the change: How to invest dynamically in an uncertain world

21 Oct 2020

Equity markets are slow to price in the implications of change. This creates opportunities for dynamic, style-agnostic investors to take advantage, argue Caroline Galligan and David Cumming.

Economic Research

Suga rush: Can Japan’s new PM deliver on reform promises?

20 Oct 2020

Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has replaced Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest serving prime minister. As he faces the twin challenges of leading the country out of a pandemic and pushing through much-needed structural reforms, what can investors expect from the new administration?

Real Assets

Overcoming underwriting obstacles in a pandemic and beyond

16 Oct 2020

The near-term disruption caused by the coronavirus has been testing for real estate borrowers seeking finance and originators. Gregor Bamert explains why new deals are still possible for those able to look through short-term uncertainty.

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Multi-asset allocation views: Changing seasons, changing dynamics

15 Oct 2020

After a strong summer, conditions are changing in asset markets. Sunil Krishnan assesses the risks and opportunities for investors.

Insurance

Home and leisure in a pandemic: Girls (and boys) still want to have fun

13 Oct 2020

From cinemas to cruises, the consumer-driven home and leisure sector was hit hard by lockdown restrictions. With economies reopening in a disjointed manner, some sub-sectors have rebounded quickly while others continue to struggle. Here, we look at how the pandemic is reshaping the industry and the implications for investors.

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Short story: Why Fed action could be bad news for the dollar

12 Oct 2020

With US real interest rates sinking ever more deeply into negative territory as the Fed signals it is on hold for a prolonged period, the outlook for the dollar is bearish for the first time in a decade, argues Mark Robertson.

Real Assets

When equity becomes debt: The untapped potential of amortising-lease real estate

9 Oct 2020

Pension schemes seeking alternatives to bonds may find amortising leases a compelling option, writes Luke Layfield.

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Sustainability: Drawing force from lines of tension

6 Oct 2020

Much like a gem is forged under pressure, the ESG movement is powerful because it results from tension at multiple levels: between art and science, absolute and relative, exclusion and engagement. Francois de Bruin explores the lines of tension underpinning the investment approach to sustainability.

Real Assets

Fit for the future: Unboxing ESG in real assets

5 Oct 2020

Recent events have highlighted the importance of the environmental, social and governance characteristics of real asset investments – not only as part of COVID-19 recovery programmes, but also as a way of futureproofing portfolios.

Equities

Don’t feed the troll: Social media companies face reckoning over hate speech

28 Sep 2020

Facebook, Twitter and other platforms are drawing criticism for their failure to tackle hate content. But will the hit to their reputation do any lasting commercial damage?

Fixed income

Fed’s policy shift may spell long-term trouble for bonds

23 Sep 2020

Bond markets have taken the recent shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy framework in their stride, partly because interest rates are now expected to stay lower for even longer. But they look vulnerable if the Fed can revive inflation.

Equities

Investing in the gut: Fixing the bacterial bugs in our microbiome

21 Sep 2020

COVID-19 has intensified interest in the human microbiome, as researchers contemplate whether bacteria living in the gut might affect susceptibility to infection. Drawing on our experience in public markets and Ahren Innovation Capital’s knowledge of private markets, we look at the companies making strides in live biotherapeutics, using ‘bugs as drugs’, and key challenges that need to be overcome.

Fixed income

Emerging market debt: A path less volatile

17 Sep 2020

After one of the most volatile periods on record, hard currency emerging market debt is once again drawing investor interest, thanks to attractive yields and its diversification potential. But while markets recovered quickly from the volatility, investors should remain cautious for the challenges ahead.

Equities

Why limit yourself? The benefits of style-agnostic investing

16 Sep 2020

Investors wanting to consistently exploit market inefficiencies should leave style biases behind, argues Mikhail Zverev.

Real Assets

Fibre broadband: The need for speed

9 Sep 2020

Lockdown measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the importance of digital connectivity. Tim Perry looks at the investment opportunities and challenges associated with European economies transitioning from copper to faster fibre broadband networks.

AIQ: The Risk Edition

COVID-19 has shown how quickly a single event can disrupt a globalised economy. AIQ explores some of the biggest threats facing the world, from cybersecurity to environmental disasters, and considers the investment implications.

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AIQ: The Climate Edition

Can the world get back on track towards meeting the commitments of 2015’s Paris Agreement? From science to psychology; from land use to big data; we examine the challenges posed by climate change and assess potential solutions.

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The Little Book of Data

Visual vignettes to help us better understand the world and provoke thought, sign up to receive our hard copy coffee table book of data visualisations, The Little Book of Data.

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AIQ Features

Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty

The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the difficulties of managing risk in an increasingly globalised and interconnected world. We explore how organisations can stay resilient through an era of radical change.

The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator

Once dismissed as a virtuous endeavour that compromised investment returns, the ability to gain a more holistic view of risk by considering environmental, social and governance factors is increasingly appreciated by investors. We assess the evolution of ESG across asset classes, as well as its role as a risk mitigator and opportunity spotter.

The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner

With developed economies stuck in a high-debt and low interest rate trap, the former head of Britain’s financial watchdog believes central banks should break a long-held taboo and finance governments directly.

Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters

In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.

Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?

COVID-19 has reminded us that the sources of economic and financial crises can be wildly unpredictable. However, while spotting patient zero in advance was nigh on impossible, pandemic risk was well telegraphed. In the first part of our mini-series, The source of the next crisis, we consider whether an infectious disease could wrong-foot us again or whether governments will learn their lesson.

Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution

COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?

Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?

Twelve years on from the financial crisis, inflation hawks are back. They were proved wrong then, but could this time be different? In part three of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis, we explore the extent to which inflation poses a risk to the global economy and financial stability.

Geopolitics: Could the coronavirus pandemic lead to a new Cold War?

The US-China relationship has deteriorated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. What does this geopolitical rivalry mean for the global economy and markets?

Nature and neglect: The era of ecological disasters

As the frequency and ferocity of natural hazards increase, in part five of our mini-series on the source of the next crisis AIQ considers the economic and investment implications and what we can learn from past mistakes.

The Economist: John Kay

AIQ speaks to economist and author John Kay about risk, uncertainty and the longer-term implications of the coronavirus pandemic.

The risks on the savings and retirement journey

COVID-19 has caused significant volatility in financial markets, creating headaches for defined contribution pension schemes seeking to deliver robust outcomes. Overcoming this requires a full map of risks along the savings and retirement journey, argues Francois de Bruin.

Policy moves into the great unknown, but at what cost?

Policymakers are dreaming up ever more radical experiments to try and pull economies out of what could be the deepest recession in living memory. But until the world can cure its addiction to debt, financial markets will remain on a knife edge.

Trial and error: The value of learning from mistakes

A common characteristic of successful people and organisations is an ability to recognise and quickly learn from their mistakes. UK Equity Income Fund Manager Chris Murphy shares the lessons he has learned from an eventful career.

Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

Resilience in credit: All calm for now, but big tests lie in store

For credit investors, resilience is about taking appropriate levels of risk, understanding market dynamics, and identifying companies best prepared for the future. All these qualities could be tested given the wide range of possible outcomes as the world begins to recover from COVID-19.

Cinderella science? Why portfolio construction holds the key to resilient investment outcomes

It is one thing to have a good investment idea, but quite another to extract the maximum potential from that idea and combine it with others to create an optimal portfolio. This is where portfolio construction comes in.

View all AIQ Features

Equities

Turn and face the change: How to invest dynamically in an uncertain world

Equity markets are slow to price in the implications of change. This creates opportunities for dynamic, style-agnostic investors to take advantage, argue Caroline Galligan and David Cumming.

Don’t feed the troll: Social media companies face reckoning over hate speech

Facebook, Twitter and other platforms are drawing criticism for their failure to tackle hate content. But will the hit to their reputation do any lasting commercial damage?

Investing in the gut: Fixing the bacterial bugs in our microbiome

Why limit yourself? The benefits of style-agnostic investing

Investors wanting to consistently exploit market inefficiencies should leave style biases behind, argues Mikhail Zverev.

Out with the old: Why income investors must be on the right side of change

It has been a difficult year for income investing, as many companies have announced cuts or suspensions to dividends. But there are opportunities for investors willing to do some digging to find resilient businesses, says Richard Saldanha.

The clockmaker and the longitude problem: A lesson for investors in bottom-up problem solving

Bottom-up thinking is not a typical hallmark of multi-asset investing. However, Francois de Bruin believes the granularity that comes from this approach offers useful diversification and risk benefits.

The new rules of client engagement

As the coronavirus pandemic reshapes our working lives, asset managers must find new ways to interact with their clients, says Apiramy Jeyarajah.

Electric avenue: EVs and the transformation of autos

In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from our infrastructure, credit research and equity teams discuss why efforts to ‘build back better’ as economies recover from COVID-19 could further accelerate investment in electric vehicles and associated infrastructure.

Chinese equities: A rally of substance?

Chinese equities have risen sharply in recent weeks, mirroring trends in global markets. While some commentators have warned efforts by Beijing to juice share prices are inflating an unsustainable bubble, Alistair Way and Xiaoyu Liu argue valuations are far from excessive.

As earnings season unfolds, equity investors must focus on the bigger picture

Investors are poring over grim corporate earnings reports, but it is crucial to look beyond quarterly figures to assess long-term value, says Giles Parkinson.

Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott

In part two of our interview with Professor Andrew Scott from London Business School, we look at how policy will shift to take account of people living for longer and how service providers will respond.

Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott

Living longer brings enormous opportunities to reshape how we spend our time. But in the first of a two-part interview, Andrew Scott from London Business School explains how advances in longevity and technology have not been matched by innovation in social structures or our approach to financial planning.

Trial and error: The value of learning from mistakes

Will COVID-19 concentrate corporate power

The fallout from the coronavirus pandemic could see large firms cement their dominance over weaker rivals. We examine the implications for investors.

Health first: Finding resilience in pharmaceuticals

COVID-19 has led to a new appreciation of the importance of healthcare in ensuring all members of society thrive. So where should investors be looking to find resilience in an industry facing enormous change?

Why COVID-19 is unlikely to trigger a fresh financial crisis

In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, Oliver Judd and Jaime Ramos Martin explain why banks are well-placed to withstand the economic fallout from COVID-19.

View all equities

Fixed income

Home and leisure in a pandemic: Girls (and boys) still want to have fun

Fed’s policy shift may spell long-term trouble for bonds

Emerging market debt: A path less volatile

The new rules of client engagement

As the coronavirus pandemic reshapes our working lives, asset managers must find new ways to interact with their clients, says Apiramy Jeyarajah.

Electric avenue: EVs and the transformation of autos

Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott

Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott

Reality bites: Retailing in a health crisis

In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, experts from Aviva Investors’ credit, equities and real asset teams discuss the consequences of COVID-19 on the retail sector and their implications for investors.

Where can investors put cash to work when rates go negative?

Just when investors thought they couldn’t sink any lower, the economic shock caused by COVID-19 has put further downward pressure on interest rates in developed markets. Caroline Hedges, head of global liquidity portfolio management at Aviva Investors, looks at the impact on money market funds.

Resilience in credit: All calm for now, but big tests lie in store

Health first: Finding resilience in pharmaceuticals

What do rising US-China tensions mean for global markets?

In the latest instalment of our editorial series, Link, Aviva Investors experts discuss the prospects for financial markets and the world economy in the face of escalating hostilities between the US and China.

Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view

In the midst of the COVID-19 shock, Felix Mantz from Lincoln Pensions and Joachim Sudre from Aviva Investors explore how defined benefit pension schemes should plan their journey towards an end game and adopt a more holistic approach to risk.

COVID-19: Will credit markets remain open for business?

While concerns around credit market liquidity have been rising since the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 sell-off has highlighted how fragile liquidity can be during periods of real stress. Colin Purdie discusses the short- and long-term implications for investment grade and high yield credit globally.

The impact of COVID-19 on global high yield

As an increasing number of companies battle the economic consequences of COVID-19, their ability to service bond payments is coming under intense scrutiny. In this Q&A, Sunita Kara considers whether current high-yield valuations adequately compensate investors for default risk and looks at the broader implications of the pandemic.

Re-enter the dragon: What China’s recovery from COVID-19 means for emerging markets

As China gradually emerges from lockdown, emerging market debt and equity investors are trying to gauge the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on its economy – and the knock-on effects for other emerging markets.

View all fixed income

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Multi-asset allocation views: Changing seasons, changing dynamics

After a strong summer, conditions are changing in asset markets. Sunil Krishnan assesses the risks and opportunities for investors.

Short story: Why Fed action could be bad news for the dollar

Sustainability: Drawing force from lines of tension

The clockmaker and the longitude problem: A lesson for investors in bottom-up problem solving

COVID-19: Can a lasting recovery happen without a vaccine?

With the notable exception of China, countries around the world have struggled to get their economies firing on all cylinders without COVID-19 infections flaring up again. Until a way to contain the virus is found, recoveries are likely to remain stop-start and fragile, argue Ian Pizer, Mark Robertson and Sunil Krishnan.

COVID-19 and antimicrobial resistance: The next health crisis?

As the world grapples with COVID-19, antibiotics used to treat serious secondary bacterial infections associated with the coronavirus are making their way into wastewater with potentially dire consequences. Abigail Herron questions whether investors appreciate the seriousness of what antimicrobial resistance could lead to.

Multi-asset allocation views: What we can learn from earnings season

Investors have faced several surprises during Q2 earnings season. Sunil Krishnan discusses what the current results round means for multi-asset investors over the coming months.

Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott

Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott

Multi-strategy investing and the COVID crash: Resilience and redemption?

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many things into focus, reminding investors of the shock of a market crash. With bond and equity prices already back at levels that seem to belie the harsh economic reality, Peter Fitzgerald and Mark Robertson believe it could be time to reconsider absolute return multi-strategy investing once more.

The risks on the savings and retirement journey

Multi-asset allocation views: Finding opportunities in the crisis

Despite uncertainty around lockdown exits and economic recovery, the role of a fund manager is to explore hidden opportunities as well as protect capital. Sunil Krishnan discusses why investment-grade credit and European assets could fit the bill for multi-asset portfolios.

Multi-asset allocation views: How long will the COVID-19 damage last?

Nearly three months after COVID-19 caused markets to crash and sent countries across the globe into lockdown, debates continue over what the post-COVID world will look like and the extent of the long-term damage. Sunil Krishnan remains cautious.

What do rising US-China tensions mean for global markets?

Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view

Cinderella science? Why portfolio construction holds the key to resilient investment outcomes

View all multi-asset & multi-strategy

Real assets

Overcoming underwriting obstacles in a pandemic and beyond

When equity becomes debt: The untapped potential of amortising-lease real estate

Pension schemes seeking alternatives to bonds may find amortising leases a compelling option, writes Luke Layfield.

Fit for the future: Unboxing ESG in real assets

Fibre broadband: The need for speed

Swipe right: The Tinder effect on real estate

It can be hard to perceive how society, and consequently our use of real estate, is changing. Sometimes, major structural trends are hiding in plain sight, says Chris Urwin.

Five charts that show Manchester is a city of the future

In this short, visual article we present five charts that show why Manchester is such a rich, vibrant and economically prosperous city. Our view is that the ingredients of connectivity, culture, talent, scale and scientific heritage make the city well-equipped to thrive in the coming years and decades.

The new rules of client engagement

As the coronavirus pandemic reshapes our working lives, asset managers must find new ways to interact with their clients, says Apiramy Jeyarajah.

Electric avenue: EVs and the transformation of autos

Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott

Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott

Reality bites: Retailing in a health crisis

How to build back better, greener and faster: A 10-point plan for UK infrastructure

Boris Johnson has called for an ‘infrastructure revolution’ to help lift the UK economy out of its coronavirus-induced malaise. Private capital could and should play a large role alongside the public purse in delivering on that ambition, as Darryl Murphy sets out in a blueprint for the industry.

Real Estate: The Last Dance for gut feel investing

Commercial property investors could learn a lot from the data-led revolution that has taken place in basketball in recent years, as Chris Urwin explains.

Tomorrow’s world: COVID-19 and the long-term future of commercial real estate

Chris Urwin and Jonathan Bayfield look beyond the near-term disruption to real estate to assess the longer-term prospects for the retail, office and logistics sectors.

What do rising US-China tensions mean for global markets?

Defined Benefit pensions de-risking: A covenant and investment view

View all real assets

Responsible investment

Turn and face the change: How to invest dynamically in an uncertain world

Equity markets are slow to price in the implications of change. This creates opportunities for dynamic, style-agnostic investors to take advantage, argue Caroline Galligan and David Cumming.

Fit for the future: Unboxing ESG in real assets

The evolution of ESG: More than just a risk mitigator

Health first: Finding resilience in pharmaceuticals

COVID-19, comp and doing the right thing: Why corporate values have never been more critical

With annual general meetings now taking place virtually, shareholders, employees and suppliers have had to adjust to lockdowns. While some of the immediate impacts will be phased out with the opening of the economy, stewardship priorities and corporate values may change forever.

Evidence and ambition: The new rules of engagement on climate change

Mirza Baig explains why far-off commitments on climate change by energy companies and their lenders are no longer enough, and why COVID-19 has catalysed rather than derailed investor engagement on the issue.

Will COVID-19 prove a watershed for ESG?

COVID-19 has thrown new light on the interdependencies in human and natural ecosystems, and the vulnerabilities of a closely networked world. Aviva Investors’ responsible investment specialists ask whether this will prove a turning point for environmental, social and governance issues.

The AIQ Podcast: Climate emergency

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast goes back to basics on climate: we explore leading scientists’ understanding of how the world is changing, as well as the investment community’s response.

The AIQ Podcast: The psychology of climate change

This latest episode of the AIQ Podcast explores the psychology of climate change and how to engage individuals in the quest for solutions.

Climate change: The journey from denial to crisis

More than 40 years since a senior NASA scientist told US Congress of concerns about human activities disrupting the climate, experts are warning of an impending climate catastrophe and the financial sector is wrestling with the implications.

Why asset managers cannot be passive on climate change

As active investors step up their engagement efforts on the climate crisis, discussions need to be at the CEO rather than board level, argues David Cumming.

Apathy, anger, action: The psychology of climate change

Psychological barriers can prevent people from acting to avert the climate threat, even when they recognise the problem. So how can we best engage individuals, companies and communities in the quest for solutions?

Stranded! When assets become liabilities

Until recently, many investors made light of dire warnings of the risks posed by assets becoming “stranded” by climate change. However, as the threat becomes reality, fears are mounting that whole industries could be wiped out.

‘Sticking’ it to carbon: The pros and cons of taxing emissions

With governments urged to do more to tackle climate change, carbon taxes are being touted as a politically expedient solution.

Slash and burn: The link between land use and climate change

Poor land management contributes to rising global temperatures. But solutions are emerging as new technologies improve farming efficiency and consumers shift towards climate-friendly diets.

Hot water: The threat of warming oceans

As the challenges posed by climate change continue to loom large, due attention should be given to oceans, not just the solid ground under our feet and the air we breathe.

View all responsible investment

Economic research

Prime time: How streaming is reshaping film and TV

Suga rush: Can Japan’s new PM deliver on reform promises?

Fed’s policy shift may spell long-term trouble for bonds

The AIQ Podcast: The source of the next crisis

The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores what we know about complex risks. With what we know now, can we anticipate where the next crisis will emerge?

COVID-19: Can a lasting recovery happen without a vaccine?

COVID-19 and antimicrobial resistance: The next health crisis?

The new rules of client engagement

As the coronavirus pandemic reshapes our working lives, asset managers must find new ways to interact with their clients, says Apiramy Jeyarajah.

The AIQ Podcast: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty

The latest episode of the AIQ podcast explores the nature of risk in an uncertain world. How can we stay resilient when the unexpected occurs?

Education, entrepreneurship and biological age: An interview with Andrew Scott

Longevity, policy and technology: An interview with Andrew Scott

Roll of the dice: Risk and resilience in an age of uncertainty

The Technocrat: Lord Adair Turner

Economics and ethics: Why diversity matters

In business, diversity can be the difference between success and failure. But while progress towards it has been frustratingly slow in many areas, the pressure is mounting on companies to act.

Pandemic risk: When will we learn our lesson?

Cybersecurity in the fourth industrial revolution

COVID-19 shocked investors into taking pandemic risks more seriously. In an increasingly connected world, where data is the new oil, could cyberattacks be the next big threat?

Inflation hawks: Crying wolf?

View all economic research

AIQ Client Matters

Analysis and commentary specific to you and your industry.

House View

A quarterly publication which encapsulates the thinking of our investment team.

Have traditional safe havens lost their edge?

Recent thinking

AIQ: The Risk Edition

AIQ: The Climate Edition

The Little Book of Data

AIQ Features

Equities

Fixed income

Multi-asset & multi-strategy

Real assets

Responsible investment

Economic research

AIQ Client Matters

House View

Institutional investor

Intermediary

Private investor

Commercial borrower